Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Hamas’s attack last year was intentionally barbaric. It was intended to elicit a disproportionate response from Netanyahu and his religious-nationalist bloc and shake up the region to the advantage of Iran, Russia, and Chins. Netanyahu is doing his part. Much of Gaza has been leveled and an Read More …
Brian M Downing The IDF is pressing ahead in Gaza. Thousands of residents have been killed and about 1.5 million have been driven from their homes and pushed south toward the Egyptian border. The Netanyahu government plans to expel them altogether and wants Arab states to take them in. In the Read More …
Brian M Downing The Houthis began as a movement opposed to rising Saudi-Wahhabi influence in Yemen. They are Shia but their identity and cause are tied more to regional differences than to sectarian doctrines. The north has been fighting the Sunni south for a decade. After many offensives and counteroffensives, Read More …
Brian M Downing The US and Saudi Arabia have been aligned since the 1945 FDR-ibn Saud meeting aboard an American warship. Washington was concerned the Second World War was consuming too much domestic oil and wanted Europe’s reconstruction to use foreign crude. A deal was struck. The Saudis would allow Read More …
Brian M Downing The Islamic Republic is on the move and taking advantage of Israeli-American missteps. The view here has long been that the US would benefit from better ties with Iran. Sunni-Shia enmity would ease and China’s rise in the Gulf would be put off. Israel would benefit too Read More …
Brian M Downing The Israeli government is being criticized for ignoring Egyptian warnings of a major Hamas strike. There may be a larger intelligence failure – one stretching back years and posing great danger for Israeli security and American standing. The present war isn’t just against Iran, Hamas, and aligned Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia are trying to replace the US as the dominant world power. They aided the Taliban and gave the US an embarrassing defeat. They’re cooperating in Ukraine to the same end. The Gaza war presents extraordinary opportunities for the agenda. China and Russia will use Read More …
Brian M Downing Decades of Israeli diplomacy, conducted by centrist and Likud governments with help from both US parties, laid the foundations of a stable Middle Eastern order. Egypt and Jordan inked agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates shared Israel’s concern with Iran and moved closer. Embassies opened, Read More …
Brian M Downing Hamas wasn’t thought capable of disciplined large-scale ground attacks. Israeli citizens and soldiers have taken serious casualties. Atrocities like those ISIL visited on Iraqis and Syrians took place. Israelis see them as the most recent horrors going back to Ma’alot, Lod, Munich, Russian pogroms, and of course Read More …
Brian M Downing Hamas has launched large-scale, well-organized attacks on Israel. They started on the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. There are similarities. Both entailed serious Israeli intelligence failures, high casualties, and international ramifications. The Soviet Union urged Egypt and Syria to avenge their losses in the Six-Day Read More …