Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Russia invaded Ukraine with expectations of taking Kyiv and many other cities in a matter of days. It was overly-ambitious and showed little understanding of military realities. It was also a deviation from the Russian way of war: protracted intense artillery bombardments devastate everything ahead and open Read More …
Brian M Downing Containment II An obvious response to Putin is to strengthen the system of alliances and bases that surrounded the old Soviet Union. George F Kennan called for containment in his 1947 Foreign Policy article. NATO, SEATO, CENTO, and the rearmament of Germany quickly followed. Kennan, however, came Read More …
Brian M Downing The US full-spectrum pressure on Iran has thus far not gotten Iran out of Syria, isolated Hisbollah, fomented an uprising, or brought down the regime of mullahs and generals. The policy seems counterproductive, solidifying the guardians in Tehran, weakening Washington’s respect in the world, and strengthening Beijing’s Read More …
Brian M Downing As noted in previous articles, political, fiscal, and generational dynamics may one day undermine the US’s long-standing reliability as a strategic partner. Worries must be strong in Eastern Europe. Countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, such as the Baltic states, might be especially concerned Read More …
Brian M Downing President Trump has worried major NATO allies by his ill treatment of their leaders, general inattentiveness, and strange apologies for Russian actions. They wonder if his policies are based on sage counsel or business hopes after leaving office. Last week they were dismayed by his order to Read More …
Brian M Downing In coming years, probably no more than fifteen years, the national debt will reach a crisis point. Debt servicing, the amount of money the government expends simply to pay off the interest, will near $1 trillion a year. This will force spending cuts – large ones. The crisis Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaged in conflict since the Khomeini Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq War that began the following year. Washington may think it can limit involvement to supplying arms and intelligence with an occasional skirmish and airstrike. But the US risks deeper involvement and Read More …
Brian M Downing King Salman of Saudi Arabia visited his counterpart in Russia last week – a further sign that events and alignments move quickly in the world. Such a visit was improbable two years ago when Putin sent his military to Syria against Saudi-backed rebels, and unthinkable thirty years Read More …
Brian M Downing The Syrian war took another turn this week as several dozen Idlib civilians were killed by noxious clouds. The victims’ symptoms point to nerve gas, possibly sarin. Subsequent autopsies support this. World opinion, generally weary of the endless conflict and the numerous atrocities, is angry. For years people Read More …
Brian M Downing The Trump administration talks of a new era of cooperation with Russia. The historical rivals, it believes, can work together in fighting ISIL and developing oil and gas fields, especially in the forbidding trans-Ural and Arctic regions. The partnership may be facilitated by the affinities between two Read More …