Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The first year of the war went well for Ukraine. The Russians were stopped outside Kyiv and driven from Kharkiv and Kherson. Victory seemed assured. But there’s been little movement in the last six months. The war for now is a stalemate and Ukrainians are less buoyant. Read More …
Brian M Downing Isolationism was once essential to the American identity. We had two oceans to protect us and trade opportunities across both. Isolationism has come and gone over the years. A new form, a counterfeit one, is taking hold in Washington. Our allies see the new isolationists as dangerous. Read More …
Brian M Downing American troops in Syria and Iraq have come under fire since the Hamas war began. Over the weekend an Iranian drone struck an outpost in Jordan near its borders with Syria and Iraq. The Houthis continue to attack Western shipping in the Red Sea. It’s all part Read More …
Brian M Downing The Israeli government is being criticized for ignoring Egyptian warnings of a major Hamas strike. There may be a larger intelligence failure – one stretching back years and posing great danger for Israeli security and American standing. The present war isn’t just against Iran, Hamas, and aligned Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia are trying to replace the US as the dominant world power. They aided the Taliban and gave the US an embarrassing defeat. They’re cooperating in Ukraine to the same end. The Gaza war presents extraordinary opportunities for the agenda. China and Russia will use Read More …
Brian M Downing Decades of Israeli diplomacy, conducted by centrist and Likud governments with help from both US parties, laid the foundations of a stable Middle Eastern order. Egypt and Jordan inked agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates shared Israel’s concern with Iran and moved closer. Embassies opened, Read More …
Brian M Downing Most observers think Putin cannot benefit from a long war. His economy is burdened by sanctions, the army has taken egregious casualties, and significant offensive operations are out of reach. However, Putin looks to Stalin not RAND and he may see promise where others do not. He’s convinced Read More …
Brian M Downing Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin vassal and Chechen dictator, is thought to be gravely ill. Several generals and oligarchs have died mysteriously since the war began, almost certainly at Putin’s orders. Kadirov has remained loyal to his Muscovite overlord so his decline may have physical causes rather than political Read More …
Brian M Downing Redrawing maps invites suspicion. Sometimes it invites conflict. China has long been claiming land and waters regarded parts of India, the Philippines, Japan, and Vietnam – historic enemies. And of course there’s Taiwan. Now, however, Chinese maps claim land heretofore recognized as part of Russia – an Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukrainian offensive has been on for close to three month. Gains around Bakhmut are incremental. Those in the land bridge faced layers of minefields but are now making significant advances toward the coast. In recent days Ukraine has begun an air campaign on Russian territory. Hundreds Read More …