Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Maps of Taliban control showed dramatic gains over all Afghanistan but they may be misleading. The absence of government troops and control does not mean Taliban control. The Taliban may see their military forces weaken markedly in coming months and face warlord reisistance in the north. Taliban Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban are in power. Their opponents have fled, their soldiers patrol the capital, Western countries are scurrying to get personnel out. Taliban control was never complete in their first emirate. There were redoubts in the north and insurgencies elsewhere. The second emirate will face instabilities as Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban have won and will govern, however cruelly, most of Afghanistan. This day could not have come without substantial support from Pakistan, in particular its army generals. The 2021 offensive launched attacks on three major cities in the south, several in the north, and in provinces Read More …
Brian M Downing Taliban forces are taking control of as much of Afghanistan as they wish. The United States is hoping its embassy is spared the humiliations of 1975 in Saigon and four years later in Tehran. It’s in the hands of the Taliban and its regional backers, Russia, Iran, Read More …
Cohesion and disintegration in the Afghan National Army Brian M Downing Afghanistan’s army has excellent equipment, including night-fighting equipment, has been well trained, and has a great deal of combat experience. Nonetheless, it has serious problems most of which predate the Taliban’s ongoing offensive. It’s unlikely to hold the west and it Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran shows no urgency in returning to the JCPOA and getting sanctions lifted. Since the Biden administration came into office in January, Iranian militias in Iraq have stepped up attacks on US positions. The Houthis have gone on the offensive in Yemen. And most recently a drone, Read More …
Brian M Downing The Afghan war is in its final stages. Districts and border crossings continue to fall to the Taliban and major cities are becoming cut off from one another. Local power holders see the Taliban as inevitable victors and feel pressed to settle with them. The Kabul politicians Read More …
Reviewed by Brian M Downing Directed by Martin Ritt and written by Elmore Leonard. 10/10 I had not seen this in fifty years until the other night. Memorable though it was in my youth, I wondered if it would hold up. It certainly does. Paul Newman plays John Russell, a Read More …
Brian M Downing Political equilibrium Afghanistan has never been a unified country with common beliefs, identity, and trust in national institutions – and it never will be. The country comprises a handful of sizable tribal confederations and ethnic groups and a slew of smaller ones who mistrust and often loathe Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban are seizing district after district, border crossing after border crossing. Major cities are increasingly cut off from one another and sieges loom. Government forces are holding up only because of Afghan special forces and American airpower. The former are stretched thin and the latter are Read More …