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The Entente sets its sights on Iran – democracy or disintegration?

Posted onApril 25, 2018April 25, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing  Candidate Trump made it clear that he opposed the Iran nuclear treaty, or JCPOA, and would be much firmer with Iran than President Obama had been or a President Hillary Clinton would be. President Trump has solidified ties with the Israeli Right and Sunni princes, making tough Read More …

Iran and the US vie in Afghanistan

Posted onApril 24, 2018April 24, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing [from 2012] Iran over the last decade has devoted considerable attention to getting US forces away from its borders.  In Iraq, it backed Shi’ite militias who formed an important part of the insurgency.  It later pressed Prime Minister Malicki to oust US forces, though he did allow Read More …

Counterinsurgency and Organizations in Afghanistan  

Posted onApril 23, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing The US is entering a new phase in the war in Afghanistan.  The new approach to fighting the Taliban is based on counterinsurgency thinking: building indigenous police and military forces, providing services to villagers, and winning support from fence sitters and insurgent sympathizers.  In this way, years Read More …

Another fighting season arrives in Afghanistan

Posted onApril 21, 2018April 22, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing  The war in Afghanistan goes on and warmer weather brings a new Taliban campaign. The Islamist group was driven from most of the country in 2001-02 but found safe haven in Pakistan and reconstituted itself as an insurgency. Irremediable corruption in Afghan government and society has helped Read More …

Will the young prince lead his troops into Syria?

Posted onApril 19, 2018April 19, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing  The US and Britain, along with Kurdish-Arab SDF allies, have established themselves in eastern Syria. Washington and Riyadh are discussing a contingent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. President Trump recently said the US would soon be out of Syria. The statement has been dialed back Read More …

The Taliban tap into Afghanistan’s roots (2009)

Posted onApril 19, 2018April 19, 2018Leave a comment

 Brian M Downing Discussion of Afghanistan policy is not being conducted with an adequate understanding of the insurgency there. Insurgents are considered akin to a crime syndicate that has expanded its influence through intimidation and violence, or to a religious cult that spreads through hortatory oration. These views are partly Read More …

Syriana Redux – The fragmentation of the Middle East (2012)

Posted onApril 18, 2018April 18, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing  The national borders from the eastern Mediterranean to the Iranian border were made after the breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918.  Britain and France, with little consideration for sectarian or ethnic realities, drew lines across the area and established the new countries of Iraq and Syria. Read More …

Missile strikes and deterrence in the Levant

Posted onApril 15, 2018April 15, 2018Leave a comment

Brian M Downing  The US has twice fired missiles into Syria in retaliation for using chemical weapons. A year ago, a unilateral US barrage of 59 ship-launched cruise missiles struck a military airbase. Last Friday, the US, Britain, and France fired twice that number, from both ships and aircraft, into Read More …

A bigger war coming in the Levant (maybe negotiations too)

Posted onApril 11, 2018April 12, 2018

Brian M Downing  A year ago, after Syria used chemical weapons on its civilians, President Trump retaliated within 72 hours with a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airfield. Unfortunately, it had no deterrent effect on Assad. Attacks on civilians have continued, most recently in Douma, near Damascus. It’s been Read More …

Notes on the Israeli strike on Syria – and Iran

Posted onApril 9, 2018April 9, 2018

Brian M Downing  The position here is that Israeli PM Netanyahu should retaliate against Syria for its use of chemical weapons. (“Why is Netanyahu looking on?” March 14 2018.) In addition to upholding norms, it would weaken an enemy that’s reconstituting itself, at least partially, from the fragmentation brought on by Read More …

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Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard's Center for International Affairs. He served in the army for three years, including one tour in Vietnam. He can be reached at brianmdowning at gmail.

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