Brian M Downing
Wall Street is doing quite well. Inflation is heading down and indexes are reaching new highs. Analysts believe the market is factoring in a second Trump presidency next January. It may be a miscalculation – one based on assurances of continuity and stability. However, the public mood and the former president’s intemperate rhetoric signal a departure may be in store.
The rule of law, checks and balances, and democratic procedures rest on beliefs, norms, and traditions — all of which have been weakening for decades, replaced with progressive certitudes and populist reactions. The next election could bring troubles, foreign and domestic, that jar markets and the entire economy. Business leaders today may know more about Milton Friedman than James Madison, more about international trade than geopolitics, and more about spreadsheets than the Constitution. They may be guilty of irrational insouciance.
State retaliation
Donald Trump has no respect for norms, traditions, or the Constitution. He speaks of using the presidency to punish rivals and strengthen his movement. The IRS, congressional committees, and the FBI could be charged with hounding opponents in politics and the business world. Crowds cheer enthusiastically.
He built a network of obliging election officials in most states, enjoys the support or at least the deference of most Republicans in Congress, and aligns with think tanks that present arguments for ousting civil servants and replacing them with loyalists – an end to the “deep state” in their minds but really the demise of the civil service and a return to the spoils system of Andy Jackson.
Disorder
Militias are proliferating across the political spectrum, more so on the Right. The January 6th uprising brought neither remorse nor stepping back among supporters, only anger and gearing up. Regardless of the outcome in November, militias may strike at political opponents, perhaps with orders from the top. Vendettas against personal enemies may seem legitimated. Gangs may assert political legitimacy and seize territory. Authorities may be overwhelmed. Some may take sides.
Fissures in military
The military has long prided itself for standing above politics. Many high-ranking officers professed not to vote as it was step toward partisanship. However, America has become divided since the 1960s, with certain institutions leaning Left and others more Right. The military is in the latter. The end of conscription after Vietnam greatly helped the shift.
The Military Times notes service members voted two-to-one for Trump in 2016 but gave Biden a slight advantage in 2020. This is possibly the result of Trump’s vacillations on leaving Syria and disrespect for Generals Kelly, Mathis, and McMaster, all of whom were vocal in criticizing him. Most flag officers are strongly supportive of democracy. They hold it sacred, more so than most Americans. Their forbears and friends died for what used to be self-evident. Further, a Trump redux could weaken NATO, embolden enemies, and imperil America’s national security
Nonetheless, a sizable bloc of military people support Trump, believe his allegations of election fraud and partisan persecution, and view his opponents not as competitors but as enemies. Election rancor will reach into the rank and file, as will ensuing incivility and violence. The election will come at the most challenging point in history since World War Two as China and Russia seek to establish a new order. Disarray in state, society, and military will be watched, encouraged, and seized upon.
The business of America
The economy will be hit. Some business leaders will appreciate a more forceful presidency, others will be wary of an unpredictable one. Exports will slump as the country’s image declines. The president will be deemed boorish and anti-democratic but also unfaithful to commitments and fawning toward Russia. Owing to the clumsiness of an American president, a momentous geopolitical shift away from the West and East Asia will be unstoppable.
Businesses will relocate assets abroad. The process has long been underway for purely business reasons but a vengeful erratic president and increasing political tensions may bring acceleration. This would likely increase the president’s unpredictability.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.