Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Vladimir Putin, then a junior KGB enforcer, saw the Soviet Union’s collapse as a geopolitical catastrophe. Most of the world deemed it a blessing, especially Eastern Europe which had endured Moscow’s rule since 1945. Another geopolitical shift may be coming. The view here has for some time Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. Private armies and elite forces create tensions with the regular army, as with the Waffen SS and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. They may become too independent of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Speculation about Russia resorting to nuclear weapons has gone on since the invasion stalled and embarrassing setbacks followed. No definite answer can be given. Putin himself might not know for sure yet. It doesn’t seem implausible. Mutually assured destruction kept nuclear weapons in the silos during the Read More …
Brian M Downing Kyiv confirms that its long-awaited offensive has begun. The main attack is in Zaporizhzhia, as predicted here last year (http://www.downingreports.com/feint-and-opportunity-on-the-southern-front/). Units are moving south into the Russian-occupied land bridge along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The offensive probably has three phases: driving a wedge between Read More …
Brian M Downing Flooding has been used in war for centuries. The Dutch broke dikes to hold back Louis XIV’s invasions. The Germans flooded the same region to slow the Allies late in World War Two. The latter was a war crime. So is Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin has successfully mobilized nationalist passions from the Great Patriotic War and deployed them into a failing war. It’s his only notable success. The ideological monolith, built on Stalingrad and Berlin and used for decades to awe the public, revitalized a hapless army and buoyed national support. The Read More …
Brian M Downing This morning ethnic Russian soldiers of the Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL), backed by Kyiv, crossed into Russia’s Belgorod region, north of central Ukraine. The force, perhaps two battalions of ethnic Russians, claim to be establishing a buffer area just south of Belgorod to push Russian artillery Read More …
Brian M Downing The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive may have begun near Bakhmut. It comes after weeks of attacks on Russian depots in the east and inside Russia itself. Expectations vary. Kyiv cautions that the offensive might not be as formidable as thought. Many outside analysts think it will be highly Read More …
Brian M Downing A Ukrainian offensive is coming. When and where aren’t known. The view here has been that, after probes and feints, a drive into the land bridge will come. This could split Russian forces in the south in two, force a major battle, and endanger the Crimean peninsula. Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia and China now see the war isn’t ending soon but feel time is on their side. They believe democracies are deeply flawed and no longer have the will and martial spirit of modern authoritarian governments, especially those in Moscow and Beijing where dissent and diversity aren’t Read More …