Brian M Downing
Putin has successfully mobilized nationalist passions from the Great Patriotic War and deployed them into a failing war. It’s his only notable success. The ideological monolith, built on Stalingrad and Berlin and used for decades to awe the public, revitalized a hapless army and buoyed national support. The view here has been that the lack of progress and lies about casualties will damage support by the end of the year.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Putin protégé and commander of a military-business empire, has noted another problem. Common people are bearing the burdens of war while privileged families remain untouched. Prigozhin went on to warn this may lead to a revolution as in 1917 when peasants and workers brought down the Romanovs. Putin may think his protégé sees him as a latter-day Nicholas and himself as a Lenin – with a loyal army.
A revolution is unlikely but Prigozhin has a point. All societies have antagonisms between rich and poor – hardships and casualties below, privileges and immunities above. Costly wars worsen the divide, especially if they bring defeat. Russia is on its way. The war is going badly. Generals and politicians have performed abysmally, though the public doesn’t realize it. Failures are adroitly blamed on Western machinations. Casualties are high, gains low. Factories are closing, prices climbing.
Russian generals took remarkably high casualties early in the war as Ukrainian snipers and drones hunted them down. However, staff officers in Moscow, oligarchs, and other high officials live safely – save for the occasional impounded yacht. The same holds for families and colleagues. Penthouses on the Nevsky Prospect and dachas in the countryside are far from dank trenches in the steppes.
After decades of official Soviet teachings on class struggle and an egalitarian future, Russia is vulnerable to poor-man’s-war discontent, as soldiers and veterans pay for failures and seek to reason why. Ethnic and religious resentments might intensify discontent. Muslims in the Caucasus feel they are conscripted unfairly and suffer disproportionate casualties. Asian peoples have long served in numbers, chiefly as a way out of poverty and isolation. The war is bringing onerous levies and high casualties.
No such problems existed in the Great Patriotic War. Political leaders weren’t from the upper crust. Tsarist ministers and officers were in exile or unmarked graves. In their places rose people from the middle classes, peasantry, and workers. They were not always especially able but their flaws didn’t stem from elite dilettantism. And every Russian knew that Stalin’s son was taken prisoner and that his father refused to exchange a field marshal for him.
By the end of 2023, the lack of progress, mounting and seemingly pointless casualties, and worsening employment and inflation may bring problematic discontent, perhaps beginning with soldiers and their families. Their dismaying reports may reduce the Great Patriotic War monolith’s ability to awe the public and hide what’s coming.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.