Brian M Downing
The Hamas attack with its torture, rapes, and mutilations was appalling. A firm, violent response was understandable and in accordance with international law. However, the destruction Netanyahu has unleashed on Gaza and its 2.4 million people is disproportionate. Whole blocks and neighborhoods lie in ruins. Reliable sources on civilian casualties are elusive, however the impact of large aerial bombs on populated areas is known. Images from hospitals speak for themselves. It’s more than an eye for an eye.
Wars are political actions. They’re intended to achieve calculated ends, not simply exact vengeance or win honor or humiliate the enemy or seize land. At least that’s what Clausewitz tried to tell us after Napoleon had been crushed and his Empire shattered. Netanyahu isn’t nearly as ambitious as Napoleon, thankfully, but his religious-nationalism has conferred senses of righteousness and destiny that prevent him from seeing the harm he’s doing his nation. And it’s unlikely to end terrorism in his country.
Defeating Hamas
Israel eliminated Black September after the ‘72 Munich massacre. Leaders were tracked down and killed with only a few unintended casualties in Norway and Lebanon. It was a tremendous feat but it accomplished little in the long run. Palestinian opposition groups such as Fatah, PFLP, and IJP remained.
The IDF is pushing south through Gaza toward the Egyptian border. Fighting remains fierce but the outcome isn’t in doubt. Hamas is being driven out of Gaza and leaders throughout the region are in hiding. But 2.4 million civilians with no connection to Hamas’s attack are being driven from their homes. Palestinian resistance will persist and indeed will be strengthened by the Gaza ruins and settler killings on the West Bank.
Arab allies
Israeli and US diplomacy brought Egypt and Jordan to the table and peace treaties were signed. Fear of Iran brought Israel closer to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates closer and Israel’s security was assured. The strategic alignment is less binding now. Chinese diplomacy is easing tensions between Iran and Sunni states, reducing the significance of Israel and the US in the strategic calculus.
The Hamas war is causing a rift between Israel and Sunni allies. Arab populations are livid at the casualties in Gaza and inadequate responses of their rulers. Generals and princes are increasingly critical of Israel and the US, trade and security agreements are imperiled, and decades of diplomacy may unravel. Chinese diplomacy will encourage a shift in trade and security.
Western support
Concern with Netanyahu’s helmsmanship has been growing in the US and EU, especially after his efforts to govern above the judiciary. Concern is widespread and deep in the Israeli public too; sizable demonstrations were ongoing for months. Netanyahu hopes the war will put off concerns and victory will end them. He’s probably wrong.
In the West the war is bringing significant support but also realization that for decades Israeli governments have done little toward the two-state solution and a great deal toward annexing the West Bank. The war is stirring up jihadism and worsening ethno-religious antagonisms. Parts of the US state are openly criticizing support for the destruction of Gaza, even though the White House and its foreign policy team issue timid demurrals.
Western publics are far more critical of Israel than their leaders. Youth is more engaged than any time since 1968. Hostile to any status quo, reflexively supporting any underclass, and unwilling to distinguish between Palestinian aspirations and Hamas atrocities, they attack whatever they can – buildings and monuments, police and opponents.
Israel faces enduring sanctions – if not formal, legal ones, then at least informal, personal ones as consumers shun Israeli exports. America may endure the same. Jewish stores face boycotts – and worse.
• • •
Netanyahu will almost certainly stonewall American and European calls to ease his harsh campaign. He will be deemed disrespectful of longstanding supporters and blind to imminent consequences. Unless moderation is forced upon him by cautious strategic thinkers in his country and Jewish supporters in the US, he will be a latter-day Ahab whose wrath led to a poorly thought-out hunt that brought disaster to ship and crew. A sister ship may be badly damaged as well.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.