Brian M Downing
Late Thursday, President Biden ordered airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria. Early reports indicate the bombs killed seventeen troops. Washington said the strike was in response to rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq. There was more at work than just that. It sent signals, as they say, regarding the return to the JCPOA, USA relations with the Sunni princes, and American resolve in the world.
The JCPOA and sanctions
Iran very much wants sanction relief but you’d hardly know it by recent actions. Tehran insists on lifting the sanctions forthwith, however it’s cancelled snap inspections, shut down video monitors in key sites, and threatened to increase its enrichment program. Its militias in Syria are probing US positions in the east and the Houthis launched an offensive on Sunni positions near Marib only days after the US paused weapon sales to Saudi Arabia.
Iran has the moral high ground here. After all, the US quit the JCPOA without good reason, imposed harsh sanctions, and kept them in place amid a plague. The moral high ground doesn’t confer the upper hand though.There are matters of national prestige, protocol, and above all domestic politics.
Biden has nothing to gain by reentering the JCPOA and ending sanctions but he has a lot to lose. The Iran haters will orchestrate a great deal of public, institutional, and congressional furor. The more strident Iran is in the region, the more the furor.
The strike in Syria told Iran that the new administration isn’t overly eager to lift sanctions and is annoyed by Iran’s assertiveness at so critical a time. Iran would do well to note that the Shia strikes in Iraq use inaccurate weapons that are unlikely to inflict serious casualties. The American counterstrike was far more accurate and lethal. Iran cannot trade attacks like that and would be unwise to escalate.
Relations with Saudi Arabia
Biden has signaled Saudi Arabia and the Emiratis that he is not eager for cordial ties with Iran. He’s still on their side, despite the arms pause. Hitting Iranian assets in Syria, rather than in Iraq, shows concern with Iran’s presence there.
Biden may also be showing continued support for pressure on Assad to break with Iran or greatly reduce reactions. US sanctions would end, Sunni reconstruction aid would pour, Israeli airstrikes would end, and the US might even leave eastern Syria.
In return, Biden wants a diplomatic solution to the Yemen war. The Emiratis are already amenable to a north-south/Shia-Sunni partition. The Saudis, however, are not – at least not just now.
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Biden has also signaled, at an early point in his tenure, that while the US is shifting more to alliances and diplomacy, it’s by no means opposed to the use of force. The airstrikes in eastern Syria were heard in Russia and China.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.