Brian M Downing
Tensions between the US and China are deepening as they vie for influence, markets, and military bases in many parts of the world. Iran, with its oil wealth, strategic position, and large population, is clearly leaning toward China. It has recently signed an agreement on trade that includes granting Beijing port facilities on the Arabian Sea just outside the Persian Gulf.
China’s success follows after American missteps over many years. The US’s ongoing “full spectrum” pressure is not bringing about change in Tehran. It is, however, weakening America’s position and strengthening China’s. Is there any prospect of rapprochement in coming years?
Tehran’s entrenchment with China and Russia
The JCPOA (2015) seemed to promise better relations between Iran and the West. The Obama administration and the Rouhani government both wanted it, but the mullahs and generals had final say and they said no for several reasons.
First, the mullahs and generals, must of them at least, base their rule in large part on standing up to the US: ousting the shah in 1979, repelling the Iraqi invasion (the US clumsily supported with sides here and there), and supporting Shia forces in Iraq after the US invasion. That message is in speeches, posters, textbooks, and various commemorations. Rapprochement would weaken raison d’être.
Second, Iran tried in 2003 to begin dialog. Sec of State Powell wanted to pursue but the Neocons in other parts of the Bush administration rejected it, even though Iran had recently helped the US drive the Taliban out of Afghanistan and afterward with stabilization efforts. Iran even accepted the US’s preferred candidate to lead the country, Hamid Karzai.
Third, Iran calculated that anti-Iranian outlooks are embedded in congress, think tanks, parts of the media, and to some extent the Pentagon and CIA. It is only a matter of time that those outlooks were adopted by a new president. The 2016 election validated that calculus.
Fourth, the mullahs and generals use the US to explain Iran’s economic woes. Certainly, US sanctions are hitting hard but government policies and official corruption are important as well.
Fifth, Tehran may calculate that American influence in the Gulf (and much of the world) is in decline. The US buys very little oil from Gulf states; China buys copious amounts. By siding with China (and Russia) and standing up to the most recent efforts to bring regime change, Iran may be playing an important role in making China the regional hegemon and the most influential power on the world stage, solidifying Iran’s security.
* * *
The prospect of better relations between the US and Iran isn’t very promising at all. American policies have been important in placing Tehran firmly in the Sino-Russian sphere. All three are eager to reduce the US presence in the region. A Biden presidency or even a Sanders one would not be able to detach Iran from its allies. However, a new, less hostile administration could prevent the further erosion of US influence and the continued ascendance of China.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.