Brian M Downing
The Emirates and Bahrain have recently recognized Israel and hinted at meaningful ties. Other Sunni monarchies may soon follow. Jerusalem’s effort in the Gulf has been one of the most remarkable diplomatic feats since Nixon established relations with China almost a half century ago.
What might rapprochement mean for the region? Will it affect the American elections in November?
The anti-Iran alignment
Israel skillfully played upon Sunni hostility toward Iran and turned longstanding backers of enemies into allies. Recent events with the Emirates and Bahrain have solidified the alignment. Combined with previous treaties with Egypt and Jordan, and the devastation of Syria, Israel is more secure than ever.
The Israel-Sunni alignment, like many agreements, depends on the persistence of a common enemy. The US and the Soviet Union cooperated in defeating the Third Reich – one of the most important alliances in the last few centuries. Victory, however, brought new concerns, priorities, and ambitions. Allies became enemies and the Cold War followed.
If Iran should be gravely weakened, say, by sanctions or war, Israel and the Sunni monarchies might go their separate ways too as memories of old hatreds resurface. Paradoxically, victory could bring trouble. From the Israeli perspective, pressure should be applied on Iran but never so much that it breaks down.
Trade community
Alignment can be made more enduring by mutual economic advantages. Israel gets oil from Russia but would do well to diversify its sources, though it may approach energy self-sufficiency as offshore fields come on line.
The Sunni monarchies of course rely greatly on oil and look on the industry’s future with dismay. They have to develop an industrial base, perhaps beginning with textiles and light arms. The Emirates and Saudi Arabia have ambitious industrialization plans to transform their desert lands into regional economic powerhouses.
Israel can be helpful with technological, engineering, and managerial matters. It might also be a source of capital, directly or indirectly, for larger projects.
The US has been important in bringing about the recent diplomatic moves and will undoubtedly want to take part in an emerging trade community. It already dominates the region’s lucrative arms market and wants to retain that position. That means limiting participation by Russia and more importantly China, though Moscow and Beijing will make the case for being the economic and geopolitical future of the world.
Inside the Sunni monarchies
The princes’s diplomacy may demonstrate formidable vision but it is almost certainly riling parts of their public and even their expansive families and retinues.
King Salman, the infirm ruler of Saudi Arabia, has voiced criticism of his son’s silence over issues such as Israel’s West Bank and Gaza policies and the US embassy move to within a stone’s throw of al Aqsa. Growing reconciliation between neighboring monarchies and Israel is almost certainly troubling to others in the House of Saud and the issue may be raised against the increasingly ruthless crown prince.
Religious and political leaders have long preached against Israeli polices and against the Jewish state itself. The religion, especially its Wahhabi branch, is a wellspring of antisemitism. Publics are now expected to welcome cordial ties with Jerusalem and one day the presence of Israeli businessmen and tourists on their streets.
All the Sunni states have Islamist movements and networks, ranging from the relatively moderate Muslim Brotherhood to AQ and ISIL. Rapprochement with Israel will strengthen and embolden them – at home and against Israeli targets around the region.
The US elections
The flurry of diplomatic activity comes shortly before elections. Most polls show President Trump trailing Joseph Biden in most swing states. The administration hopes the rapprochement will help in November.
Trump’s position with evangelical voters deeply committed to Israel has flagged slightly in recent years as many question his steadfastness and morality. Whether recent diplomacy will win them back remains to be seen. Jewish-Americans support Biden 67% to 30% according to a recent Jewish Electorate Institute poll. Their votes are based on a wide range of issues, not simply Israel, and Trump does not fare well.
Even many ardent neoconservatives refused to back him in 2016 and are devoting their energies and standing to seeing the outcome is not repeated.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.