News and commentary 1 Oct 2015

Taliban lose control of Kunduz

The Taliban may have lost Kunduz shortly after taking it. Three things are important here. First, many Afghan troops failed to put up a fight. Second, the counteroffensive was led by Afghan special forces troops and special forces from unspecified western countries. (They were probably US and UK troops,) Third, the Taliban tried to rally support from the people of Kunduz but failed. It look like the battle of Kunduz was a propaganda coup for the Taliban, but a defeat and possibly a serious one. We are unlikely to get reliable casualty reports from either side.

The Taliban have taken district capitals and military outposts before but only rarely have they been able to hold them. This has been the pattern for three years now. Fighting is seasonal in Afghanistan and the fighting will wind down in about a month. IEDs and bombings will continue.

Update: new reports say that US special forces gave tactical advice but did not take part in the fighting.

Russian airstrikes not restricted to ISIL

Mainstream Syrian rebels are undergoing the initial round of Russian airstrikes. This will present a disincentive for these rebels to attack Syrian army forces and nudge them into fighting ISIL and possibly al Nusrah.

ISIL leader now in Ramadi?

Saudi media report that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may have moved from Reqaa in eastern Syria to Ramadi in central Iraq. If so, it was rather foolish as Ramadi will be surrounded by Iraqi troops in coming weeks. Nonetheless, al-Baghdadi may be trying to make the upcoming campaign for Ramadi a decisive battle. This whole story seems dubious.