News and commentary 10 Oct 2015

Turkish capital rocked by blasts

Two explosions have killed at least eighty-six people in Ankara. No one has yet claimed responsibility. Ordinarily, a blast in Turkey would lead to suspicion of Kurdish involvement. However. these blasts were at a pro-Kurdish rally and in any case the PKK has been targeting security forces, not civilian ones. ISIL would be a likely party, though many on the scene suspect the Turkish government was striking back at the Kurds.

ISIL on the offensive in northern Syria

Russian airstrikes have concentrated on non-ISIL rebels, leaving ISIL relatively unscathed. With the non-ISIL rebels weakened and ISIL on the offensive, Russia and Syria will present the war as between Assad and ISIL. Look for the US to increase its strikes on ISIL in Syria and increased aid to Syrian Kurds.

Iran to bring China into Chabahar corridor deal 

Not long after the announcement of a commerce deal among India, Iran, and Afghanistan, comes word that China may participate. This will not please India which is a rival of China. Beijing may want the option of using Chabahar to extract Afghan resources as its present routes are through Pakistan, which is unstable, and through northern A-stan, which the Taliban is gaining control in.

Meanwhile, Iran announced that its oil exports to India have jumped since the sanctions began to fall away, and that new oil projects were underway.

Iranian media are also suggesting that Russia’s launch of cruise missiles from the Caspian into Syria has caused the US to pull an aircraft carrier out of the Gulf. Not likely at all. However, those Russian missiles are capable of going supersonic in their last stage and at that point US naval vessels are defenseless. The US will put another carrier into the Gulf soon. Look for Iranian media to point to this as a belligerent act.