News and commentary 14 Oct 2015

Iranian ground troops in Syria prepare for offensive 

Reports of Iranian troops (not just IRGC advisers) have been coming in for months. There seems to be reliable ones now. They will be used alongside Syrian army troops and Hisbollah militias in an impending offensive around Aleppo which is currently the site of fighting between government troops, rebels, and ISIL. This may press the rebels to side with ISIL, if only transiently, which would be a propaganda coup for Syria, Russia, and Iran.

Disquiet among Russian Muslims 

Putin’s recent intervention in Syria has caused dismay in his country’s large Muslim population. Russia is supporting the Shia government; Russian Muslims are mostly Sunni. Disquiet and dismay do not necessarily spell trouble, but there are Muslim population in the Caucasus that have been violent, especially the Chechens. There are several hundred or possibly a few thousand Chechens fighting with ISIL and AQ in the Middle East. Furthermore, the recently annexed Crimea has a large Muslim population.

Taliban admit withdrawing from Kunduz city

After briefly seizing the northern Afghan city, the Taliban have pulled out. They still have appreciable presences in several districts in surrounding Kunduz. All in all, the Taliban have suffered a defeat. The Afghan army, however, is stretched thin and many of its troops are unreliable. My view is that the conflict os a war of attrition and both sides have suffered high casualties over the last few years.