News and commentary 2 Nov 2015

Russia rules out pilot error and structural flaws in Sinai crash

With little if any examination of the wreckage, Russian air authorities have claimed that the crash was not due to pilot error or structural problems. They have referred vaguely to “external” causes. Sounds like Russia has an agenda here, possibly to draw comparisons between the Sinai crash and the Malaysian jet that its forces almost certainly shot down. Or to claim a US missile brought it down?

Taliban divisions continue

The High Council of Afghanistan Islamic Emirate has announced its break with the Taliban, chiefly over the succession of the old leader Mullah Omar. This comes at the close of the fighting season which saw substantial Taliban momentum, though little in the way of lasting territorial gains. It will be interesting to see if the splinter group moves toward ISIL and if the Taliban factions fight each other.

AQ leader calls for unity against West and Russia 

Egyptian doctor and AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahri has called for unity among Islamist forces to fight the US and Russia in Iraq and Syria. The best opportunity for that is from cooperation among the al Nusrah Front and ISIL, but they have fought each other in the recent past and are unlikely to heed Zawahiri’s call. ISIL has no respect for him.

Kurdish troops prepare to take Sinjal

Kurdish forces are preparing to attack the strategic town of SInjal, which lies just to the west of ISIL-occupied Mosul and which connects that city with ISIL lands in Syria. Iraqi and Kurdish forces are reluctant to attack major cities such as Mosul and Ramadi as they are well defended. Better to isolate them. (I suggested this course of action last January.)