Anti-US sentiment quite strong in Syria and Iraq, despite anti-ISIL campaign
Most Syrians, including Kurds, believe the US deliberately created ISIL. That is, ISIL was not an accidental consequence of the 2003 Iraq war; it was a conscious policy from Washington. Opposition to the US-led air campaign is widely opposed. More alarmingly, a large number of people prefer ISIL government to anarchy – a situation that was considered possible here long ago. Polling in war-torn areas, including some under ISIL and Syrian control, of course presents serious methodological problems.
ISIL troops strength may be lower than thought
An ISIL defector claims that ISIL has its share of “ghost soldiers” – troops that exist on paper only. This of course is a problem in the corrupt Iraqi army. However, ISIL administration is deemed less corrupt than that of existing governments in the region, Iraq and Syria.
Concerns grow over ISIL presence in Afghanistan
ISIL has established itself in eastern A-stan, not far from where al Qaeda, Lashkar-i-Taiba, and other internationalist jihadis are ensconced. This, combined with growing concern over the Taliban’s strength vis-a-vis the ANA, may lead to US troops returning to A-stan. We may see several battalion-strength special forces teams deployed to A-stan to act as a mobile reaction force for endangered government positions and as a strike force on ISIL positions.
Kurdistan taking step toward independence
President Barzani is looking to initiate a referendum on independence from Iraq. This will anger Baghdad which as been organizing Shia and Yazidi militias to oppose Sunni Kurds. Bargain would not be taking this step unless he felt he had considerable international support. The US position is unclear.