North Korea detonates nuclear explosion
International monitoring organizations report a large explosion centered at North Korea’s nuclear test site. The same organizations cast doubt on Pyongyang’s claim that it was a hydrogen bomb. The explosion, whether thermonuclear or not, is part of an intentional effort on the part of Russia, China, and Iran to establish themselves as a power bloc that is an alternative to US power around the world.
US special forces have been engaged in regular ground combat – not training and advising – in southern Afghanistan where the Taliban have made gains in Helmand province. As noted here, the US will provide troops for a reaction force that is quickly deployed to trouble spots.
ISIL launches offensive in western Iraq
Fresh from its defeat at Ramadi, ISIL is demonstrating that it still has offensive capacity. It is striking at Haditha, about 175 miles west of Baghdad. Haditha is far from Baghdad and defended chiefly by Sunni tribal militias. If those militias are defeated it will demonstrate that neither Baghdad nor the US can help them, and a major ally in fighting ISIL, the Sunni tribes, might become discouraged. Look for US airpower to pummel ISIL positions around Haditha.
Kurdistan has deep political divisions
Kurdistan, a central part of the ISIL War in Iraq, is divided along political and personal lines. Its peshmerga forces do not have a central command; parts of it are commanded by the PUK, others by the KDP. This will not badly harm the war effort but it augurs poorly for Kurdistan’s political stability in coming years.