Brian M Downing
Turkey has moved troops into Syria in recent years. It has done so mainly to intimidate Syrian Kurds, though Erdogan wins power prestige along the way. Most recently, he occupied a stretch of land in the northeast, after the US obligingly pulled back.
Syria wants the US and Turkey out. Its troops have probed US positions in the east but pulled back. They’ve hit Turkish troops in recent weeks and yesterday they inflicted several dozen casualties. Turkey will almost certainly retaliate soon. This is causing headaches for Vladimir Putin. He has been expanding his influence in the region, especially in Syria and Turkey. But he has his priorities.
Russia and Syria
Moscow has backed Syria since the early days of the Cold War, arming and guiding it in wars against Israel and establishing a naval base at Tartus.
Unable to keep ally Qaddafi in power, Putin was eager to show that he was a reliable ally. So when the Assad government was endangered, Putin sent arms and advisors. In 2015, wanting to end the stalemate, he deployed aircraft to provide government ground troops with tactical air support. Russian airstrikes leveled towns, allowing ground troops to take rebel positions with lower casualties.
Russia has established a large airfield in Latakia. Its private contractors and Chechen troops help Damascus reassert control over areas of the country. It has a stake, but it has another one as well.
Russia and Turkey
Few countries in that part of the world have had such abiding animosity as Russia and Turkey. They’ve fought countless wars since the days of the Romanovs and Ottomans. In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian plane and another conflict loomed.
However, Putin exploited tensions between Turkey and the US and cozied up to Erdogan. Trade agreements soon followed and Russian military hardware went in, much to Washington’s dismay. Erdogan triangulated between Moscow and Washington, keeping both uneasy and gaining more leverage with the two rivals. Putin enjoyed a tremendous success. The US and NATO were weakened.
Russia’s dilemma
Wanting good relations with both Syria and Turkey, Putin will scramble to prevent the Syria-Turkey skirmish from worsening. A ceasefire will be the first order of business but then the matter of whose troops can be where will have to be addressed.
Turkey fully realizes its position in Russia’s efforts to weaken the US and NATO and will drive a hard bargain. Putin will likely favor Erdogan, despite objections in Damascus – and Tehran as well. Russia and Turkey are already at odds over Libya and greater tensions in Syria could encourage rapprochement with the US and NATO. Sec of State Pompeo may be on his way to Ankara.
Assad, by contrast, has no place to go. He cannot move closer to the Saudis and Emiratis, though the Sunni powers will offer incentives. His Shia-Alawi regime would in time give way to his country’s Sunni majority. The US and Israel are out of the question.
The precise outcome of a negotiated settlement is unclear, but Turkish troops are likely to stay where they are for quite some time. Putin’s strategic priorities could not be clearer.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.