Brian M Downing
China, Russia, and Iran are probing American resolve along the vast Eurasian periphery. China presents problems in East Asia, Iran in the Gulf and Levant, Russia from Stettin in the north to Kiev.
Putin’s doing his part by deploying combat units along the border with the Ukraine. He’s done it before without incident but sometimes repeated feints are intended to bring complacency. Throughout 1973, Egypt and Syria moved troops up to Israeli lines, then pulled back. On Yom Kippur, and much to Israel’s surprise, they attacked. US intelligence, however, believes a Russian attack may come early next year. What’s afoot?
Warning
Putin and his security apparatus were angered by NATO’s acceptance of Eastern European countries into its fold. Bush the Elder had stated that NATO would stay put, but Eastern Europeans had been occupied by the Soviet Union from WW2 until communism collapsed in the early nineties. They wanted protection from resurgent Russian nationalism.
The troop may be warning Kiev not to join NATO. This is paradoxical as Ukrainians showed little interest in western military ties until Russia invaded Crimea and supported militias in the eastern Ukraine. With invasion concerns rising, Ukrainians are more eager for NATO support.
Full invasion
Putin invaded and annexed the Crimea in 2013 but he’s unlikely to repeat this in the rest of the Ukraine. His mechanized infantry and armor could drive deep into the former SSR but the Ukrainian military is more prepared than the Crimean-based units that surrendered without a fight in 2013.
It doesn’t take much to stir up anti-Russian passions, not since Stalin’s starved the Ukraine in the thirties. Kiev takes its military far more seriously since it lost the Crimea. Ukrainian forces have trained with American and other western units. Occupying the Ukraine would bring costly, protracted fighting.
Limited invasion
Russian proxies and the Ukrainian army have been engaged in a sitzkrieg for several years in the east. Skirmishes and artillery exchanges take place but neither side wants to defeat the other side as that risks intervention by major powers.
Putin may end the sitzkrieg by a lightning drive into the east where proxies have been entrenched for years – but not going any deeper. The West, he calculates, already knows the eastern Ukraine is lost and doesn’t have the resolve to respond forcefully. Kiev will have to accept the new state of affairs. The West will protest vigorously and impose new sanctions, but little more. The eastern Ukraine will be swiftly annexed and become as accepted a part of Russia as the Crimea is today.
American prestige and politics
Putin judges Biden and his foreign policy team as weak, all the more so after the Afghanistan debacle. He knows his country got out with more dignity. Russian troops convoyed across the border, Americans were cornered in an airport and flew out as Taliban victors watched.
A limited move into the eastern Ukraine will underscore America’s dwindling power and Russia’s returning prestige. But Putin is eyeing US domestic politics as well. Biden will be seen as lacking the strength of predecessors. His chances of getting legislation passed will diminish, as will the prospects for his party in 2022 and 2024 elections. Putin would welcome a Trump restoration and all the turmoil that would bring to America.
©2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.