Brian M Downing
Historical analogies
The shift from youthful idealism to terror is clear in several countries. Russian youth went to the countryside to learn from simple people and bring reform. It didn’t work well at all and as tsarist repression continued, they became nihilistic and violent. Nechaev and Zasulich pushed Chernyshevsky Herzen aside. Police intendants, governors, and even Alexander II were killed. Alexander III was even more repressive than his father but the opposition became more organized and lethal, culminating in the Bolsheviks and their terror.
The US has had lesser instances such as the anarchists of the early 20th century and the radical left of the Vietnam period. The antiwar movement began with the optimism of the civil rights movement which it developed from. The repression of the ’68 convention led to the emergence of a group of fervent terrorists known as the Weathermen. Their lethality was limited only by their incompetence.
Young people across the Islamic world see no chance for peaceful change. Seeing no reform from the shah, some Iranian youths joined group such as the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), which still exists and is likely to become more prominent.
In Egypt almost a thousand people were shot down during largely peaceful protests. A spate of bombings soon followed. Recruits head for militant bands in Sinai. Some are AQ and ISIL affiliates.
Kindred groups
Bands of determined Iranians will learn from groups already in their country and benefit from foreign powers determined to bring the mullahs and generals down. Four groups are already waging insurgencies or conducting bombing and assassination campaigns.
The MEK, as noted, dates back to the late Pahlavi period and among their targets were American military and diplomatic personnel. Seeing usefulness in the MEK, Saddam Hussein gave it sanctuary. More recently Mossad has used the MEK to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists and bomb IRGC bases.
Iran has a sizable Arab population in the west. Though mostly Shia, they nonetheless resent Persian hegemony. The Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA) has struck inside Iran, though not as often or effectively as the MEK.
The Balochs of southeastern Iran are Sunni and they resent Persian-Shia dominance, all the more so as the region is increasingly developed from the outside. They too have struck IRGC targets, often from sanctuaries in western Pakistan.
The Kurds of northwestern Iran have been waging insurgencies against central government for centuries. Their efforts are mostly guerrilla operations in their homelands, not bombings or assassinations.
Foreign support
Russian terrorists of the 19th century had no foreign support. Not even the Germans or Turks would lend support. The same is true of American counterparts the following century. Islamist terror, however, has long enjoyed strong international support, which may seek to enlist disaffected Iranians eager to exact retribution on the mullahs and generals.
Pakistan supports al Qaeda and a slew of related groups as they are allies against India, especially in Kashmir. Over the years, wealthy individuals, including members of the Saudi royal family, have donated to al Qaeda. Today, the Saudi government funds Baloch and Arab groups inside Iran and those operating from havens across the border in Pakistan. Riyadh has also at times funded ISIL in order to divert its attention away from the kingdom and onto Iran. Mossad has backed the MEK, especially in its attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists, and also the Kurds on both sides of the Iraq-Iran border. The MEK is presently based in Albania under US aegis.
American interest in weakening Iran varies from administration to administration. Presently, it varies with the president’s attentiveness. The Saudis and Israelis are concerned that the next administration might be far less hostile toward Iran. It might even be eager for rapprochement. This gives urgency to their efforts to encourage terrorism inside Iran.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.