Brian M Downing
The American effort in Afghanistan has been dragging on for almost two decades. It’s generally comprehended as a conflict between the US and government forces on the one hand and the Taliban on the other. Over the last ten years, however, the war has become much more complicated – and more insoluble.
Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan are involved now and they are not interested in our succeeding or exiting honorably.
All four states were helpful after 9/11 but global politics have changed and cooperation has become conflict. Partners are now rivals or enemies. Now, all four are aiding the Taliban and bleeding American troops and resolve in a landlocked part of Central Asia.
Russia is far stronger and more assertive than it was in 2001. Former KGB officer Vladimir Putin has taken power and is determined to see his country return to great power status at the expense of the US wherever possible.
Russia is clandestinely providing arms to the Taliban, even though they are the sons of mujahideen who fought it in the 1980s. Moscow has established communications with old Northern Alliance warlords such as Abdul Dostum. He served alongside Russian troops in the 1980s, until he saw better opportunities with the other side. Dostum today has a sinecure in Kabul and a sizable military retinue in Uzbek regions.
China too is stronger and more assertive than in 2001. The leadership is determined to restore their country as economic and political center of the world. The US, in their estimation, is blocking them. American military bases are all over East Asia and its carrier groups patrol sea lanes, particularly those connecting China’s industrial coastline with energy sources in the Persian Gulf.
Chinese businesses have established close ties with the Kabul government, chiefly through investments, bribes, and presenting their country as the region’s economic and political leader. Kabul’s corruption and incompetence are irremediable and have been key to the Taliban’s resurgence. China benefits from the continuing display of American powerlessness in Afghanistan and the erosion of support for internationalism.
Iran has recovered from the costly Iraq war of the 1980s and become a regional power. It has long had close ties with Afghanistan’s Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras (the latter a Shia people). Iran and its Afghan allies were instrumental in helping the US expel the Taliban in 2001-02.
Shortly thereafter Iran sought rapprochement with the US but was coldly rebuffed. It became firmly tied to Russia and China.
Tehran began arming and training Taliban fighters on an IRGC base near Zahedan in southeast Iran. It was not out of sympathy for their cause or ideology; the Taliban are deemed a dangerous Sunni sect that slaughtered Iranian diplomats and fellow Shia. It was a warning to the US that an attack on Iranian nuclear sites would lead to more weapons to the Taliban.
Today the mullahs and generals want to punish the US for renewed sanctions and support for assassinations and bombings inside their country. Afghanistan is a low-cost, low-risk policy that bleeds the US and helps Russia and China.
Pakistan’s support for the Taliban and al Qaeda is well known but gets downplayed in Washington. Pakistan has refused to expel or arrest Taliban fighters or their war councils. It continues to provide safe havens and sends Kashmiris to train in camps in eastern Afghanistan. The generals occasionally remind the United States that logistics for Afghanistan depend on routes through Pakistan. The only other supply line comes through Russia.
Pakistan now acts concertedly with the other entente countries, China, Russia, and Iran, to thwart American efforts in Afghanistan and perhaps even deliver a stinging defeat there. The Afghan war is now a conflict with the Taliban backed to varying extents by US rivals, enemies, and duplicitous allies.
The US has a way of ending its involvement in Afghanistan and imposing a fearsome, enduring penalty on Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan. Turning the tables will be addressed next.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.