Brian M Downing
The IDF is pressing ahead in Gaza. Thousands of residents have been killed and about 1.5 million have been driven from their homes and pushed south toward the Egyptian border. The Netanyahu government plans to expel them altogether and wants Arab states to take them in. In the hardliners’ estimation that’s the only way to prevent future attacks. It would also humiliate the Palestinians and put an end to their hopes in Gaza and the West Bank and solidify the religious-nationalist Right in Israel.
However, Netanyahu’s offensive has compressed about two million people into a receding and shattered part of southern Gaza. There isn’t sufficient food or water or medical resources and the Israeli government allows only limited relief. Opposition to Netanyahu’s offensive is building and a collision is imminent. There are several possible outcomes.
Israel relents
Growing international pressure, high IDF casualties, and vexing realities of putative victory could force Jerusalem to back off from expulsion and claim to work on a political settlement, including a Palestinian state. This would set off a fierce internal debate in an already polarized nation. Violence would erupt from the quarters that called for and welcomed Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination in 1995. They are already acting above the law in the West Bank.
Netanyahu would oppose backing away but might see longterm advantage to stepping down and letting the opposition take responsibility. They would face the backlash – and he would lead it.
Erosion of American and Israeli security
As the conflict continues and the Palestinians face possible expulsion, regional partners may reevaluate ties with the US and Israel. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and others feel insulted and marginalized, especially as their publics become increasingly angry and unruly.
Promising regional trade from the Maghreb to the Gulf will be undermined. Security arrangements built after decades of difficult diplomacy will be in question. War is unlikely, at least in the short run, but Israel could find itself as isolated as it was decades ago.
Divisions in the West
European support for Israel is substantial but disquiet and criticism are increasingly vocal. The EU doesn’t want to lose trade relations with North Africa and the Middle East which date back to colonial times. Nor does it want to deal with more domestic terrorism and racial tensions.
Disagreements are developing between the EU and the US, where criticism of Israel presents daunting consequences. The need for unity is stronger now than at any time since the Cold War as Russia and China are seeking to overturn the world order the West has built.
Chinese diplomacy
Beijing is already calling for restraint and dialog. It presents itself as an outside party and seeks the moral high ground in the eyes of the people of the Middle East. The outcome of the Gaza war is less important than using it to detach the region from the West, economically and strategically.
China will argue that the US will never treat Arabs fairly. For decades it’s used force to maintain its power in the region, taking the place of Europeans who subjugated it from North Africa to the Persian Gulf. Better to break with the abode of war and align with the rising economic power in the world.
Moving Arab states away from the West will secure China’s energy sources and win export markets for its consumer goods and military equipment. If successful, China will take a major step forward in its long march to restored world preeminence. The Gaza war presents portentous opportunities.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.