Brian M Downing
The Trump administration has increased the military presence around Iran. This was in response to intelligence reports that Iran was moving missiles around the Persian Gulf. American media reported the Iranian moves endangered US troops in the region. Previous administrations have made similar moves. The Obama administration seemed on the verge of attacking Iran in early 2012. Nothing happened.
Tehran responded to this week’s move by announcing its intention to withdraw from parts of the JCPOA and restart its uranium-enrichment program. The US pulled out altogether.
The Trump administration sees its actions as asserting American might in a changing world. Saudi Arabia and Israel see them enhancing their power. Allies in Europe and Asia are concerned that the White House is once again unduly influenced by the same foreign policy hands who promised smooth transitions to democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia and China welcome the opportunity to deepen the divide between Washington and its longstanding allies.
American allies
Britain, France, India, and most East Asian states are not supporting Washington’s Iran policies. They want stability in the Gulf and oil prices. They mistrust the US president for reasons ranging from withdrawal from the climate treaty to personal demeanor. Allies in the anti-Iran entente are also poorly regarded. Benjamin Netanyahu deceived the world on the Palestinian issue over many years, and Mohammad bin Salman is a ruthless dictator.
The White House has expelled experienced foreign policy hands such as Rex Tillerson, James Mattis, John Kelly, and HR McMaster who were cautious about ratcheting up conflict in the Gulf. At the helm now are team players and a son-in-law.
American intelligence in the lead-up to recent conflicts hasn’t been good. CIA analyses on Saddam’s WMDs and Pakistan’s trustworthiness were dead wrong. The results were disastrous, the consequences wear on. We’re unlikely to know the bases of present intelligence on Iranian nuclear programs and troops movements, at least not in a timely manner, but foreign capitals are not eagerly endorsing them.
Russia and China
Both Moscow and Beijing supported the sanctions that led to the JCPOA. They did not want Iran becoming a nuclear power, and still don’t. Like the EU, IAEA, and CIA, they do not see evidence Iran has violated the deal.
Both Russia and China support Iran and almost certainly encouraged it to restart a limited enrichment program. It’s an assertion of national will that will demonstrate the US’s heavy-handedness and deepen the chasm between Washington and allies.
Russia, China, EU countries, India, and S Korea may use diplomatic pressures to ease tensions in the Gulf. Many will help Iran elide sanctions and get its oil to world markets. Only a few years ago a global consensus supported the US against Iran. The consensus is now switching sides.
Russia and China may show support by sending naval vessels to Iranian ports. They may also sell Iran more sophisticated military hardware, possibly even ship-killing cruise missiles that can gravely damage or even sink aircraft carriers. The US would have to rethink its position inside the Gulf.
Iran, having been occupied and manipulated by Britain, the US, and the Soviet Union over the last century, opposes foreign troops on its soil. However, it did allow Russian aircraft to strike Syrian rebels from an airfield near Hamadan, albeit briefly. It might see another deployment as a necessary deterrent.
The most damaging thing Russia, China, and discontented American allies could do is coalesce world opinion into judging the Trump administration’s Tehran policy as based on doubtful intelligence, inexperienced politicians, and rosy scenarios of a democratic Iran. It won’t be a hard sell.
American allies will see it as an effort to force Washington to act more cautiously in the world. Russia and China will see it as a clear sign that American power is diminishing and their own is on the rise.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.