Brian M Downing
Covid-19 is taking a heavy toll around the world, but it will almost certainly subside in a few months. We will then confront a gravely weakened economy. Next months unemployment and GDP figures will be alarming, the ones in May will be appalling. A Federal Reserve Governor fears unemployment may hit 30% – roughly what it was at the depth of the Great Depression. If the numbers are only half what he thinks, we are in for an ordeal.
The prospect of a steep, enduring downturn has brought questions about social consequences, including rates of suicide. The president and others point to high suicide rates in the 1930s as reason to end social distancing and return to work at a date earlier than a glance at the bell curve would warrant.
But there was no great increase in suicide during the Depression. In fact, the numbers dropped markedly. Why is that?
The 1920s saw prosperity and leisure overtake the old culture of thrift and religion. While much of the nation felt fairly comfortable as they drove away from traditional life, there were elements of unease. Many people felt that change had been too fast, too directionless, too reckless. As the twenties came to a close, indulgence had become quite advanced. Suicide rates went up 50% in the decade after 1918.
That all ended with the Depression. As unemployment soared, many who had moved away to find new lives in the city had to return home. Hard times placed strains on the family, but there were unifying effects. The family again became a cooperative unit, as it had been a generation or so earlier. Adults and children worked odd jobs, pooled resources, and eked out a living as best they could.
Poverty ended many leisure activities, leaving families with more time together. Divorce rates, on the rise throughout the twenties, began to decline. The small town’s prestige and enchantment had fallen throughout previous years, but its virtues were appreciated anew, if only by necessity. Communities conferred a sense of belonging and continuity during a bewildering time.
Suicide rates rose until 1932, when they peaked at 17/100k. By the end of the decade, however, the rate had fallen to 10 – a 41% decline. (Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, Dept of HEW, 1968, p. 99)
This doesn’t mean that another great depression will not bring higher suicide rates. Having risen from 17/100k to 22/100k since 1980, today’s figures are already high. Family and community are far weaker now than ever before. Society has become intensely heterogeneous, norm-less, narcissistic, and contentious.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.