Brian M Downing
[The arguments here were written down well before recent developments in our cities.]
Generational shift
A cultural revolution has been underway for several years. In recent weeks it’s taken on a powerful and sweeping form. The beliefs of many people, liberal and conservative, are being denounced. It’s reshaping schools and workplaces and will determine how America acts in the world. It will also determine if America can act in the world.
The rising generational movement is deeply concerned with domestic issue such as the environment, social justice, income distribution, and a slew of political reforms. There is substantial interest in some global issues, most notably climate change and the environment, but a concerted effort to contain China is unlikely to appeal to them.
Their cosmopolitanism does not sit well with an essentially nationalist campaign, despite support in East Asia and elsewhere. The risk of military escalation will cause them to prefer dialog and negotiation. Though China’s human rights record is poor, the rising generational movement is unlikely to be deeply motivated by it – not because they don’t believe in human rights, because their own country’s record is to them as dismal.
If warned that China is surpassing the US and EU on the world stage, they may note that civilizations come and go and the West has seas of blood behind and around it. Perhaps China’s era will be less sanguinary as its notion of expansion and dominance has thus far not included war and enslavement.
Fiscal crisis
The federal debt today stands at $26 trillion and is expected to reach $33 trillion in ten years. The ongoing pandemic and recession may speed things up. The numbers are staggering and unfathomable. Politicians have been promising us for decades that economic growth will lower the debt but it hasn’t happened yet, and never will.
In ten years payments on the debt alone will near $1 trillion per year. That’s roughly what the entire Vietnam war cost in today’s dollars. Hard budgetary decisions will have to be made and Washington isn’t very good at that. A budget crisis would bring paralysis and deepening polarization across political, regional, racial, and gender lines.
The rising generational movement will fundamentally alter the country’s priorities and role in the world. Entitlements, they hold, are basic human rights, no different than free speech and religion. Military service at home or abroad is a thing of the past – family lore passed down from grandparents who faced conscription. Better, the movement will argue, to pull back from commitments around the world.
Polarization, paralysis, disintegration
National institutions are held in low regard. Congress’s approval rating reaches twenty-five percent in a good week. The Supreme Court once enjoyed an aura of independence and neutrality but it’s now seen as a transient group of partisan appointees. For several election cycles now presidential contenders have proclaimed themselves to be unifiers and consensus-seekers. The well-paid consultants must scramble for new slogans.
The present level of political, racial, gender, and regional strife, if worsened by a fiscal crunch, may deeply worsen public life. Washington may have to contend with increased strife at home.
Demands may come from major cities to rural enclaves for recognition of distinct identities, autonomy, or independence. National rights and laws, from the first two Amendments to Roe v Wade, may be ignored or negated by local political bodies. A spirited crowd might be an effective stand-in. Terrorist cells may be forming already – insurgent bands as well.
Washington may be be paralyzed and unable to act in the world. Our adversaries in Beijing and Moscow know this. So do our allies in Europe and Asia, and they may be forming their strategic outlooks accordingly.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.