Brian M Downing
Redrawing maps invites suspicion. Sometimes it invites conflict. China has long been claiming land and waters regarded parts of India, the Philippines, Japan, and Vietnam – historic enemies. And of course there’s Taiwan. Now, however, Chinese maps claim land heretofore recognized as part of Russia – an ally.
The two powers, one rising, the other floundering, are working together to build a new world order, so the new map is surprising especially as it signals larger claims ahead. It’s not simply a matter for cartographers. Governments are taking notice, especially the one in Moscow.
The territory
Moscow and Beijing have long contested areas along their borders, especially those on the Amur and Ussuri Rivers. Large tracts of land changed hands centuries ago when the Romanovs were strong and the Qings weak. In 1969 the Soviet Union and China fought pitched battles there and elsewhere. Fighting lasted six months and took hundreds of lives. Fresh in office, Nixon and Kissinger saw opportunity and sent feelers to Mao and Chou. The China card was played which led to a startling geopolitical shift as Beijing moved closer to the US. It pressed Hanoi to end the Vietnam War and later supported the mujahideen in Afghanistan.
Chinese schoolchildren today are taught of “unequal treaties” imposed on them by foreign powers, including Russia, Britain, Japan, and the US. Instruction also proclaims the time is right for reasserting power. The cards are being reshuffled.
The timing
Rising powers thrive on senses of destiny. The future is limitless, wrongs must be avenged. China is signaling the world that its rise to supremacy is well underway and cannot be stopped. India, Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines have long known this but Russia probably felt immune to Chinese revanchism. After all, it holds up governments from North Africa to Central Asia that provide natural resources to the Chinese co-prosperity sphere, keeps jihadis down along the Chinese periphery, and can project power across Eurasia, the Mediterranean, and well into the Atlantic.
China is making it clear who the senior partner is. Stalin and his successors treated Mao as a subordinate, a margarine communist. Stalin initiated the Korean War in 1950, despite Mao’s preference for peace while his country rebuilt after decades of war. Russians saw China as backward but useful in the Cold War. Moscow sold military hardware and oil and with the immense PLA apparently on its side, acted more boldly in the world.
Xi is announcing the power relationship is now reversed. China’s economy is ten times that of Russia, its army twice as large, its hi-tech sector a generation ahead. The PLA no longer depends on MiG and Sukhoi and other Russian firms for military equipment. Putin’s economy and army weaken everyday. China might not give orders, but its suggestions will have more force behind them. Even an intensely nationalistic KGB enforcer must realize that a new era has begun. But how will Putin, the generals, and the public react?
The risks
Xi certainly weighed the risks before issuing new maps but he may have miscalculated, though it may take years for a denouement. The move will certainly rile Russian nationalism already amplified by the Ukraine war and invocations of the Great Patriotic War. Many will see insult, especially as Putin ceded land on the Amur River to Xi only fifteen years ago.
Russia, they will insist, isn’t weak or in decline and will never become a vassal to an Asiatic overlord. Those days ended when Dmitri Donskoi faced down Mongol hordes in 1380. Nonetheless, Putin recently went cap in hand to get arms from North Korea. Some may see the map as a stab in the back and part of a vast plot.
Opponents of Putin’s war policy and murderousness toward rivals can use it against him. Whispers of disquiet may begin Inside bureau corridors and opulent dachas. Putin prioritized vengeance on the West over security in the East. Who poses the greater danger, a divided, decadent West on the way down or a confident, purposeful China on the march? Perhaps Russian schoolchildren will learn of the lessons taught in Chinese schools.
Reassessment will find support from Russia’s allies. India and Vietnam have long had solid commercial and military ties with Moscow and both fear China’s assertiveness. They may sugges that triangulating between East and West will enhance Russian power in the world far more than seeking to reestablish Stalin’s empire.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.