Brian M Downing
Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin vassal and Chechen dictator, is thought to be gravely ill. Several generals and oligarchs have died mysteriously since the war began, almost certainly at Putin’s orders. Kadirov has remained loyal to his Muscovite overlord so his decline may have physical causes rather than political ones. However, it takes little to elicit suspicion in Putin and like Stalin he has skilled assassins.
After two wars against insurgent Chechens, Putin found a reliable vassal in Kadyrov. He gave him copious amounts of money to rebuild Grozny and keep order. Kadyrov ruled with an iron fist and later sent troops to serve in Syria, usually behind the lines in an effort to mollify fellow Muslims who’d been bombed and gassed. More recently Kadyrov has done Putin’s bidding in Ukraine. His death will present problems.
Military significance
Kadyrov has six battalions in Ukraine. That’s about three thousand troops but he probably has “ghost soldiers” to pad the books. Whatever the numbers, they’ve not performed well. They took heavy casualties early on, when they were repulsed outside Kyiv, and later in the Mariupol siege, where they played secondary roles to Russian paratroopers. Last summer, Chechens took over Wagner Group positions around Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are slowly pushing them back.
Kadyrov’s forte may be propaganda. He’s made scores of short videos of himself and his troops dashing into the open and firing Kalashnikov bursts, sometimes capped with hearty laughs and flexed muscles. If there were Ukrainians nearby, they’d have killed them in short order. In one video said to be taken near battle lines, Kadyrov kneels piously on a prayer rug as though grateful for his victories. A Russian gas station is clearly visible behind him. The firm doesn’t operate in Ukraine.
Losing a commander of a militia network held together, if loosely, by kinship and clan ties will bring difficulties not faced by rational-legal armies. Cohesion and efficacy may suffer. Succession could be problematic, even violent. Chechens on the Bakhmut front, already worn down by Ukrainian pressure over the last few months, may buckle.
Political significance
Kadyrov’s political apparatus may suffer too. It kept a lid on militant separatists who struck St Petersburg, Volgorod, and Moscow in the last two decades. They also assassinated Kadyrov’s father. The iron fist might be less forceful. Chechens might look at it less fearfully.
Despite Kadyrov’s displays of bravado and lavish spending at home, hostility toward Russia remains strong. Chechens fight alongside Ukrainians against the common enemy. Their leader has vowed to take the war home to the Caucasus. Restive Dagestanis could also renew the fight.
Hundreds if not thousands of Chechens and Dagestanis serve in jihadi groups in Syria. They could target Russian troops in the region. Modern jihadism began as a war on Russian aggression. A return should be encouraged.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.