Brian M Downing
The war in Yemen has been dragging on since 2014, creating famine, deepening sectarian hatreds, embarrassing Western backers – but solving nothing. Initially, the Houthis of the Shia north drove deep into the Sunni south, probably in the hope of seizing Aden and establishing a commanding bargaining position.
But the Sunnis had the advantage of fighting from defensive positions in their homeland. They received support from Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, including airpower and mercenaries. The Emiratis put troops in the field, Saudi counterparts stayed in the rear. The US and other Western states provided arms and intelligence.
Biden, not long after taking office, paused support and took the Houthis off the terrorist list. (It’s the Sunnis who are intertwined with AQ and ISIL.) It was a signal to both sides that negotiations must start. But things have gotten more complicated.
Washington’s agenda
Biden wants to use diplomacy to solve conflicts. That’s quite a change since the 9/11 attacks which saw intervention after intervention, deployment after deployment. general after general. Obama had no aversion to troop deployments and escalations into Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He made drone warfare and airpower central to fighting the Taliban.
The administration also wants to restore American prestige and leadership. Both were damaged by his predecessor’s erratic positions across the globe and dismissiveness toward allies. Diplomatic pressure and concern with human rights in Yemen would be a good start.
Diplomatic success would bring a needed respite to the military. It’s been deployed to Afghanistan since 2001, Iraq intermittently since 2003, and Syria since 2013. Pilots and special forces have been especially burdened. The latter’s advisory and training teams have been sent to scores of countries from the Sahel to Southeast Asia.
The Houthi agenda – and Iran’s too
Not long after Washington announced an arms pause and took the Houthis off the terror list, Houthi forces initiated a drive on Marib and launched strikes on oil assets inside Saudi Arabia. Biden could not have been pleased.
The purpose is to some extent expanding control over the country’s oilfields. But they are nearing depletion. The purpose is more military than economic. Sunni troops on the back foot strengthens the Houthi bargaining position in talks. The US and China fought over places like Pork Chop Hill late in the Korean War for the same reason.
The Houthis – and Iran – also want to make it clearer to American and European publics that Saudi Arabia has a well-appointed but weak military. It relies on the West for defense (and knows how to drag the West into royal schemes) and disregards humanitarian considerations the West supports, at times.
The offensive also raises the specter of further US involvement in the region and gives an incentive to treat with the Houthis and Iran sooner rather than later.
The Biden administration has three alternatives for Yemen: increase involvement, step back and let the war proceed as it will, or press hard now for negotiations. Each will be presented next.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.