Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war may be accelerating Saudi Arabia’s detachment from the United States and realignment with Russia and China. The process, long followed here, has been underway for years through oil contracts, output quotas, arms sales, and diplomacy. The Russo-Ukraine war is making the process clear and Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars bring sweeping changes, most unforeseen. The First World War brought down three proud, venerable dynasties and began Europe’s decline and America’s ascendance, a process completed by the Second World War. The Russo-Ukraine war, the largest Europe has seen since 1945, will determine the future of Europe Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have compelling domestic incentives to pursue negotiations and ease tensions. Dialog is almost certainly being encouraged by China. It may even have helped initiate it. It has considerable influence on both sides of the Gulf and ambition to replace the United States as Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at daggers drawn for decades. The conflict is based partly on the 1400-year-old schism within Islam but more on the instability from the 1979 Khomeini Revolution.That led to fears of expansionary Shiism and then to a Sunni invasion of Iran. More Read More …
Brian M Downing Israel’s usefulness to Russia isn’t what it once was. Russia’s economy is stronger. China, now an ally, has modernized and developed a hi-tech sector. Both powers want to weaken the US and make their axis the most powerful and respected bloc in the world. The Islamic world, Read More …
Brian M Downing Iraq gravely worsened Sunni-Shia animosities by invading Iran in 1980. Though unsupportive at first, the Sunni states funneled support to Saddam Hussein to stave off defeat and a triumphant Shia republic. The war lasted eight years and killed hundreds of thousands. Today, Iraq is trying to use Read More …
Brian M Downing In coming years the US and China will be vying for power throughout the world. This will be especially so in the Persian Gulf owing to its strategic and symbolic importance. Diplomacy in Yemen may lead the way to bolder efforts. China cannot allow the US to Read More …
Brian M Downing China’s march to global preeminence has become bolder in recent weeks. Its “militia fleets” are anchored in disputed areas of the South China Sea. North Korea’s missile tests and Myanmar’s crackdown almost certainly have been approved in Beijing. The recent meeting with American emissaries in Alaska was Read More …
Brian M Downing The Biden administration has three alternatives for Yemen: increase US involvement, step back and let the war proceed as it will, or press hard now for negotiations. Decisive military action The US may assess the present situation as one that can be remedied by immediate, forceful action. Read More …
Brian M Downing The war in Yemen has been dragging on since 2014, creating famine, deepening sectarian hatreds, embarrassing Western backers – but solving nothing. Initially, the Houthis of the Shia north drove deep into the Sunni south, probably in the hope of seizing Aden and establishing a commanding bargaining position. Read More …