Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Houthis began as a movement opposed to rising Saudi-Wahhabi influence in Yemen. They are Shia but their identity and cause are tied more to regional differences than to sectarian doctrines. The north has been fighting the Sunni south for a decade. After many offensives and counteroffensives, Read More …
Brian M Downing US and aligned forces in Syria have come under intermittent attacks over the years – by ISIL, government and rebel groups, Iranian militias, and even Putin’s Wagner Group. The attacks stepped up last week as Iranian drones hit US positions in the east. The US responded quickly Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that China, along with Russia, would gain influence in the Persian Gulf at the US’s expense. Beijing took an important step last week when it brokered an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reopen diplomatic ties. The UAE, another Sunni Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran slipped in importance when Russia invaded Ukraine. The mullahs and generals have returned to center stage, nudged by allies and enemies but mostly on their own. They have crushed dissidents, supplied Russia with weapons, and enriched uranium near weapons-grade levels. The advancing nuclear program makes attacks Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the weekend drones attacked military and industrial targets inside Iran. The drones were small with limited range and launched from either inside Iran or nearby Kurdish Iraq. Iranian assets in Syria were also struck. Israel is almost certainly involved. The new Netanyahu government loathes Iran and Read More …
Brian M Downing Thus far the Iranian uprising has apparently not led to weakened repressive capacity, divisions in the elite, or opposition in parliament (Majles). This doesn’t bode well. However, separatist movements, terrorism, and foreign pressures may cause deeper problems for the mullahs and generals. Intensified separatism Iran is ruled Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the years since the 1979 revolution, Iran has seen several uprisings against the mullahs and generals. They are part of a long history of protests and democratic aspirations led by young urban dwellers that go back over a century. Previous triggers have been electoral fraud, shortages, Read More …
Brian M Downing The Yemen war has been going on since 2014. It’s the most recent civil war since the 1960s when north and south were formed into a single country, despite widely disparate cultures and histories. Today, each side is backed by foreign powers – the north by Iran, Read More …
Brian M Downing Concerns of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites are on the rise once again. They come after the US, at Israel’s behest, broke with the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran. In response, Iran has cranked up its centrifuges and enriched its uranium stores, though not yet Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have compelling domestic incentives to pursue negotiations and ease tensions. Dialog is almost certainly being encouraged by China. It may even have helped initiate it. It has considerable influence on both sides of the Gulf and ambition to replace the United States as Read More …