Brian M Downing
The Yemen war has been going on since 2014. It’s the most recent civil war since the 1960s when north and south were formed into a single country, despite widely disparate cultures and histories.
Today, each side is backed by foreign powers – the north by Iran, the south by Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. The latter two states have used influence in Washington to get US involvement and now American missile teams, ground and naval, are defending them. Most Arab states buy weapons not to build competent militaries but to draw in other people’s militaries.
A military solution is unlikely. Diplomatic pressure is needed. Will it come from the United States or China?
War
Initially, northern forces drove deep into the south and neared Aden. Whether they wanted to conquer the south or just establish the upper hand for negotiations isn’t clear. In any case, northern forces found themselves in hostile territory and the Gulf monarchies, seeing Iran behind the drive, intervened with money, troops, and mercenaries. The northerners had to pull back, stalemate ensued.
Over the last year the war has centered on Marib, a city in the central region where the country’s oil resources are. Control of it, like Aden years ago and Pork Chop Hill in the Korean War, will mean the upper hand. Unfortunately, the battle for Marib is dragging on and both sides are facing depletion and choosing escalation, each hoping the other will collapse. In that respect, the battle is more like Verdun.
The north is firing on Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, and Iranian arms are getting through to the north. The Saudis are upping their air support, the Emiratis are sending more money and equipment to southerners. The US is getting dragged in more and more, though the war has little relation to its security properly understood. Both sides have been holding talks centered on the broader divide. Escalation in Yemen, however, has stalled them. The war goes on, casualties mount, and civilian agony worsens.
Diplomacy
The US has the power to force the Saudis and Emiratis into a ceasefire. Both sides would benefit. Unfortunately, the White House doesn’t have the will to upset anti-Iran forces in Congress and on K Street. Iran would be reluctant to accept the diplomacy of a country that abandoned the JCPOA, assassinated respected leaders, condoned attacks by allies, and may re-elect a mercurial dilettante.
Washington’s present weaknesses and past policies open the way for Chinese diplomacy. Beijing is eager to prove itself a world leader, especially in a manner that shows America is no longer able to do so, at least not in the Persian Gulf. China’s purchase of hydrocarbons from the Saudis, Emiratis, and Iranians gives it considerable leverage with both sides. So formidable is China’s clout that neither side will voice concern over Beijing’s treatment of its Muslim populations.
China wants stability in its energy suppliers. The Yemen war and the sectarian divide behind it are to the Politburo minor issues that pose trouble for the Long March to global power. Exerting pressure on both sides will secure those sources, embarrass the US, and take a significant step toward hegemony in the Gulf. The Long March is on.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.