Brian M Downing
US and aligned forces in Syria have come under intermittent attacks over the years – by ISIL, government and rebel groups, Iranian militias, and even Putin’s Wagner Group. The attacks stepped up last week as Iranian drones hit US positions in the east. The US responded quickly with airstrikes on Iranian positions. Israel has been conducting intermittent strikes for years.
The cycle may go on, as with previous incidents. But this one is taking place in a new context. China is nudging Saudi Arabia and Iran – old rivals and backers of warring sides in Syria – to the negotiating table. The implications for the region and US standing in it are far-reaching.
The new geopolitical context
While the US and Israel have aligned with the Sunni states against Iran, China has shown strategic acumen by purchasing oil from both sides and developing influence with princes and mullahs alike. Beijing’s entreaties to the sectarian enemies may be compelling.
China will soon have the biggest economy. That means large, longterm oil purchases, substantial investment capital and engineering aid, and potential access to an immense population with rising discretionary incomes – enticing to a region hoping to move from exporting energy to building industries.
The US imports very little oil from the Gulf and may be self-sufficient in a decade. The US and the Gulf are becoming competitors and at times contentious ones.
The US is deeply divided and may be paralyzed in coming years. It may not be able to guard the Gulf guarantee the free flow of oil through Hormuz, which is the rationale for all the bases in the region.
The US has supported or acquiesced to attacks and assassinations on Iran, rejected its request for rapprochement, and abandoned the JCPOA, leading to renewed tensions and to Chinese opportunities.
Nonetheless, even the most hawkish presidents have declined to use military force to topple the regime and street protests are not serious challenges. The Sunnis may have abandoned the idea of regime change in Tehran and are amenable to Chinese diplomacy to keep the mullahs in check.
China has recently convinced Iran and Saudi Arabia to move toward reconciliation – no mean feat – and is positioned to make progress on the stalemate in Yemen and Iran’s nuclear program. Beijing is on the way up.
Iran et al’s objectives
Iran’s recent attacks in Syria began in this geopolitical context. They were probably planned in conjunction with China – and Russia as well, which has been buzzing US positions in recent days. What do Iran, China, and Russia hope to accomplish? Quite a lot.
The attacks will hopefully demonstrate US overextension. Washington is sending huge quantities of hardware to Ukraine, building up anti-China forces from the subcontinent to East Asia, and maintaining hegemony in the Middle East. This will present budgetary problems and encourage isolationist movements in the public and Congress.
More importantly by far, strikes by the US and Israel on Iranian positions will be presented as evidence of their reliance on military force over diplomacy. The perception is already widespread and it will be underscored as China continues dialog while attacks go back and forth. The US and Israel will be seen as hindering negotiations and delaying regional development.
The Israeli-Sunni alignment
Over the last twenty years Jerusalem and Washington have crafted an alignment once deemed unthinkable. They have presented Iran, especially a nuclear Iran, as a dire threat that must be countered by unified action. If China is successful in easing sectarian tensions and convincing Tehran to step back from uranium enrichment, Iran will be less unifying to the Sunnis. Jerusalem and Washington’s carefully-crafted diplomacy will be less relevant.
Riyadh’s reaction is crucial. Since the Khomeini revolution (1979) sent shivers through Sunni capitals, the princes have sought to bring down the mullahs and end Shia-Alawi rule in Syria. Now, however, Riyadh et al may see the pointlessness of further conflict, the advantages of Chinese alignment, and the diminishing importance of Israel and the US. The ambitious crown prince had hoped to be legitimized as a military victor. He may settle for peacemaker and industrializer.
China’s ultimate goal is to convince the Gulf states to allow its navy to defend the region and guarantee the flow of oil through Hormuz. As it is, the US navy can choke off Chinese oil imports with ease. Taking the US’s place is a long way off but China is on the move.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.