Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Houthis began as a movement opposed to rising Saudi-Wahhabi influence in Yemen. They are Shia but their identity and cause are tied more to regional differences than to sectarian doctrines. The north has been fighting the Sunni south for a decade. After many offensives and counteroffensives, Read More …
Brian M Downing The US and Saudi Arabia have been aligned since the 1945 FDR-ibn Saud meeting aboard an American warship. Washington was concerned the Second World War was consuming too much domestic oil and wanted Europe’s reconstruction to use foreign crude. A deal was struck. The Saudis would allow Read More …
Brian M Downing Decades of Israeli diplomacy, conducted by centrist and Likud governments with help from both US parties, laid the foundations of a stable Middle Eastern order. Egypt and Jordan inked agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates shared Israel’s concern with Iran and moved closer. Embassies opened, Read More …
Brian M Downing The effort to oust the Assad government is all but over. The US and Turkey are still occupying swathes of the north and east, Idlib remains in rebel hands for now, but Damascus has clearly won. Nonetheless, the US has imposed stricter sanctions on Syria. Foreign countries Read More …
Brian M Downing The crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s unexpected rise to power brought hope to outsiders who wanted the kingdom to liberalize, for its own good. Inside the kingdom, especially within the ranks, there were expectations of professionalizing the senior officer corps and turning the army into a capable Read More …
Brian M Downing The US left Iraq in 2011 but returned at the invitation of the government. Initially, and relatively secretly, the US sent counterterrorism teams when al Qaeda resurfaced shortly after the US left. A fuller deployment came when ISIL overran the north. ISIL has lost almost all its Read More …
Brian M Downing Iranian reformers over the years have repeatedly mounted courageous demonstrations against the mullahs and generals who’ve been in charge since 1979. Determined young people, mainly urban-dwellers, took to the streets after the fraudulent 2009 election, after price hikes, and other tines as well. They’ve been shot down Read More …
Brian M Downing Israel is more secure now than at any time since its founding. Regional enemies have either signed peace agreements (Egypt, Jordan), all but disintegrated from internal divisions (Syria, Libya, Iraq), or aligned with it against Iran (Saudi Arabia). Furthermore, Jerusalem has skillfully built ties with Moscow. Without Read More …
Brian M Downing Candidate Trump campaigned on leaving the JCPOA and taking an aggressive stance toward Iran. President Trump has indeed left the JCPOA, reimposed sanctions, and supported Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria. Nonetheless, last summer he pulled back from launching strikes on Iran, which National Security Advisor Read More …
Brian M Downing War seemed imminent not long ago. Not between Saudi Arabia and Iran, of course, but between the US and Iran. Saudi Arabia and its allies have been hostile toward Iran for generations and their predecessors have despised Shiiism for almost fourteen centuries. They’ve prevailed upon an inexperienced, Read More …