Brian M Downing
War seemed imminent not long ago. Not between Saudi Arabia and Iran, of course, but between the US and Iran. Saudi Arabia and its allies have been hostile toward Iran for generations and their predecessors have despised Shiiism for almost fourteen centuries. They’ve prevailed upon an inexperienced, mercurial president to take up their ancient, sectarian cause and make their interests and passions his. The deftness with which they’ve done this is truly remarkable, though congratulations will be withheld for now.
The administration’s war policy is on pause. Washington and Tehran are exchanging angry words but not missile salvoes. However, neither are they exchanging negotiating points. The president is erratic but so far the pause is holding. It’s welcome by many US allies, bitterly opposed by others. Watch out.
The pause
The march to war has been delayed mainly by opposition from the Pentagon. The generals do not see evidence that Iran has violated the JCPOA, until of course US sanctions and recent threats led to limited violations short of a weapons program. The generals see no substantive support from allies. No one is putting their troops into the fray, only urging the US on. On the other hand, Russia and China are behind Tehran.
The conflict may seem like a quick, easy effort from the tendentious perspectives of Washington think tanks. However, they’ve been wrong before, as ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan show. The generals do not trust those think tanks or the president.
Britain and Iran
A few days into the pause, the British navy seized a tanker filled with Iranian crude. It wasn’t done to show support for Washington’s Iran policy but to back international sanctions against Syria – the tanker’s destination. Iran responded with a feint toward a British ship in the Gulf.
The move wasn’t intended to draw Britain into the conflict, though it did raise some hackles. It signaled the dangers of war in the Gulf and encouraged Britain and other powers to accelerate efforts to get restrain Washington. Britain is in considerable turmoil with the ongoing Brexit fiasco and is in any case ill-disposed toward another conflict with dubious underpinnings and no end in sight.
Diplomacy
Foreign countries are seeking a settlement and coalescing a global consensus of sorts. It’s unlikely to support Washington. Few countries believe Iran has violated the JCPOA. Washington’s claims lack evidence and come chiefly from Benjamin Netanyahu, hardly an unimpeachable source and hardly one with a good record on international agreements. Nor are the assertions supported by the IAEA, EU, or even the CIA.
Talks will underscore the absence of international backing for Washington’s Iran policy. There’s no support from longstanding allies that have been aligned with the US for over a century and have fought alongside it in numerous wars, including ones in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Further, the absence of trust in President Trump will be made all the clearer.
Diplomatic efforts have put aWashington’s war plans on hold. But for how long? The hold could put Iran on the back burner as the president turns to trade talks with China and domestic issues including the 2020 election. That would not sit well in Riyadh or Jerusalem.
Israel
Netanyahu has made the Iran issue a cornerstone of his foreign policy. It brings Sunni powers to Israel’s side for the first time in its history, wins their silence on the West Bank and Gaza, and sets the stage for a Middle Eastern common market. What Berlin is to the EU, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv would be to the Middle East.
Trump’s waffling, whether from resentment over being manipulated or from distraction by other issues, endangers this. In recent weeks Netanyahu has boasted of his new F-35s: “[Iran] should remember that these planes can reach every place in the Middle East, including Iran.” More recently, he said, “At the moment, the only army in the world to fight Iran – this is the Israeli army.”
A strike on Iran could end negotiations and turn the Sunni-Shia conflict into open warfare. It would also force the US to act decisively. After all, that’s what allies are for.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.