Brian M Downing
Decades of Israeli diplomacy, conducted by centrist and Likud governments with help from both US parties, laid the foundations of a stable Middle Eastern order. Egypt and Jordan inked agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates shared Israel’s concern with Iran and moved closer. Embassies opened, trade began. This is in danger now.
China wants to expand its influence in the Middle East, in part because it would secure oil imports, in part because it would weaken the US. Russia is on board. It too wants to weaken the US and regain the power it had after WW2. The Gaza war, though small by historical standards, might bring immense geopolitical change. China and Russia would benefit and may be working to achieve it.
The faltering order
Sunni governments on good terms with Israel have long faced criticism from their clergy and publics. This isn’t surprising as for generations those governments decried Israel as a neocolonial, non-Muslim enemy that oppressed Palestinians. Those same governments recently changed their tune. Israel became a vital regional partner, and the Palestinians were all but forgotten.
There was some concern over the last few years. The aging Saudi king chided his son and heir apparent, Muhammad bin Salman, for ignoring the Palestinians. Concerns emerged as violence took place on the West Bank and fights broke out around al Aqsa. Then the Hamas attacks took place. Arab publics celebrated.
Attention is on the Israeli response. Airstrikes and artillery are taking a high toll on civilians. They’ve been ordered to march south and they fill the roads with what they can carry. An IDF ground invasion is coming and will probably aim to depopulate north Gaza before turning south to finish the job. Expulsion is coming. Egypt presently won’t allow them in. One side will have to give in.
It won’t be Netanyahu. Nor will he compromise. During the Yom Kippur War, the IDF provided water to encircled Egyptian soldiers in Sinai, but 3000 years of moral strictures have given way. Reason of state, righteous wrath, and religious-nationalist ambition are the new laws. An immense humanitarian disaster is underway. Hundreds of thousands of Gazans may choose death over expulsion. Egypt, after consultation with Sunni princes, will probably open border gates. Sinai is a likely refugee area for the time being.
The disaster will go on for weeks under the eyes of the media, especially Al Jazeera. Arab ire will intensify. Public demonstrations will become more unruly, clergy at Friday prayers will make impassioned calls for action, and the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadi groups will look for opportunity. Leaders feel demeaned by Netanyahu. Diplomacy with Israel and the US has brought instability in their own countries. They may be as angry as their subjects. They want to respond forcefully but know they don’t match up militarily.
The prospective order
China and Russia are watching intently and may help develop a response. They too have nationalist ambitions and will make their case in Riyadh, Dubai, Cairo, Baghdad, and Amman. They may already have done so.
The US and Israel are joined at the hip and nothing will alter that. Every politician regularly swears to this before constituents and PACs. The US will never treat Palestinians or other Arabs fairly. That’s been clear for decades and not even the disaster in Gaza will change things.
A new security partnership can be forged for the region. Russia and its Wagner Group already have bases in Syria, Libya, Mali, and Sudan. Moscow has demonstrated its commitment to its Syrian ally by intervening against rebels and hardline Islamists. One day Russian and Chinese bases in the Gulf can uphold loyal governments and guarantee the free flow of oil as well.
The US is in decline. Its political system is nearing paralysis and no new consensus is likely. Political and racial animosities will erupt in coming years and the US will not be able to act in the world.
China is a confident rising power. Alignment will bring the Middle East into a privileged position in its co-prosperity sphere. The region will benefit from Chinese technology, capital, and natural resources and become a vital industrial region with access to a market of over a billion people with rising disposable incomes. Russian and Middle Eastern oil reserves will determine world prices and bring foreign countries to heel.
After a century of Western meddling, China and Russia will help restore respect for the region. The US and Israel will no longer call the shots. The Arab world will enjoy a new day. Israel will be as isolated and vulnerable as in 1948 and the US will be dealt a stunning defeat.
The arguments aren’t without merit and indeed display formidable strategic vision. Events in Gaza may make them attractive, and a jarring shift may be coming.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.