Brian M Downing
The crown prince
Mohammed bin Salman’s unexpected rise to power brought hope to outsiders who wanted the kingdom to liberalize, for its own good. Inside the kingdom, especially within the ranks, there were expectations of professionalizing the senior officer corps and turning the army into a capable fighting force, instead of remaining a ceremonial ornament tasked with legitimizing the monarchy and cowing the subjects.
The prince’s sudden dismissal of several generals and security ministers brought hope of reforms that would bring change. But the replacements were no more professional than their predecessors. The only difference was that the new crop had personal loyalty to MBS rather than to his familial rivals. After all, armies in the Middle East are there to protect the regime, not serve the nation and fight wars.
Islamist-minded troops do not like the prince’s relaxation of strictures on women and plan to industrialize the kingdom. More concerning, however, is his cooperation with the US and Israel – twin demons in official teachings. The prince cannot defend the kingdom without western help. President Trump made that clear in a recent well-publicized phone call. And American troops are once again stationed in the kingdom.
Wahhabism
Every Saudi subject is exposed to heapings of Wahhabi beliefs – in schools, mosques, and army training and lectures. Wahhabism has been the ideological underpinning of the monarchy, a yawning expanse between creed and king can undermine stability.
Wahhabism began as a condemnation of laxness and heresy and a call to strict fundamentalism – and restored glory. That faith, it is believed, helped ensure victory for Abdul Aziz and his Ikhwan warriors, as it had the Almoravids who, upon reforming, swept across the Maghreb and Andalusia in centuries past. Rejecting the sins of the present and embracing the ways of the past bring victory, glory, and a new day.
Wahhabism’s call to valor is passed on through Koranic recitations and mythic histories. Passages tell of great conquests, fearsome vengeance, cities in flames, and the sacredness of Islamic soil. Most important is the promise of a new day when the armies of the faithful arise, put infidels and heretics to the sword, and bring a new day. And of course there’s the glory and reward of dying in battle. Those beliefs have faded since the days of Abdul Aziz but they persist in the ranks – and call attention to faithless rulers, albeit not publicly.
Actions
There is considerable discontent in the army, but an uprising isn’t likely. Inertia, fear, and imported surveillance gear will keep most soldiers in line. Jarring consequences are nonetheless possible.
Disaffected soldiers can establish ties with existing al Qaeda and ISIL cells and form an underground network capable of conducting disciplined lethal operations in the kingdom.
A small group of determined soldiers could assassinate the crown prince as security details prove no more effective than air defenses. They have special weaponry such as sniper rifles and high explosives. Some learned to fly military aircraft, perhaps at Pensacola.
A larger force could seize control of the Grand Mosque, as did a self-proclaimed mahdi in 1979. Other targets include a royal palace and an export terminal in the Gulf.
A brigade or more could take control of an army base or city. Calls would go out to fellow soldiers to disobey the prince and rally to the army of the faithful.
Even failed attempts would spread concern and disquiet. The kingdom’s instability would shift from a remote possibility to unnerving headlines. Some subjects would be terrified, others inspired.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.