Brian M Downing
The US and Saudi Arabia have been aligned since the 1945 FDR-ibn Saud meeting aboard an American warship. Washington was concerned the Second World War was consuming too much domestic oil and wanted Europe’s reconstruction to use foreign crude. A deal was struck. The Saudis would allow American firms to develop Saudi fields and the US would defend the Kingdom.
The partnership, despite intermittent disagreements on Israel and sectarian matters, has continued to the present. Changes in oil production and geopolitics are making the partnership less binding. Riyadh is looking more to Beijing now, all the more intently as the Gaza war underlines US priorities and angers the Muslim world.
Declining oil imports
America became a large-scale importer in the decades after 1945 as suburbanization and automobile ownership all but defined the country. Over the last fifteen years or so, technology has led to a production boom and the US is the largest producer once again.
Imports from Saudi Arabia are small. They’re based less on actual demand than on on the Kingdom’s ownership of refineries and retail stations. The US and Saudi Arabia are petro-rivals. The US won’t go along with OPEC production agreements and in time can limit the cartel’s ability to shape prices.
The US now relies on Saudi arms purchases which inject billions of dollars and provide thousands of high-skill jobs. No president can ignore that. Riyadh’s aim isn’t to build a first-rate military but to garner influence in American defense industry, lobbies, and congress. It’s worked well.
Rising new order
China has become the importer-in-chief of oil from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, including Iran. Its influence is on the rise. Beijing wants to secure the sea lanes out of Hormuz which it sees as endangered by the slew of American bases from Oman to Kuwait.
China has long been using investments and diplomacy to advance its interests. The region’s growing anger over US support for Israel’s Gaza war provides an opportunity for a great step forward. Its arguments are both predictable and credible.
The US isn’t a reliable ally. The government is deeply polarized and nearing complete paralysis. Fierce political and racial violence isn’t far off. The 2024 election could bring protracted trouble. Militias are forming across the country.
The US is too close to Israel to give other states a fair shake. Israel’s emerging religious-nationalist majority is especially disrespectful of Islam and covetous of its holy sites.
The US cannot be depended upon to support faltering allies, as shown amid the Arab Spring in Egypt. In fact, it periodically goes on regime-change missions, as in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. China presents itself as once victimized by Western aggression and now accepting of allied governments. Its Russian partner has demonstrated firm support for faltering allies, as in Mali, Sudan, and most forcefully Syria. Rulers know another Spring may come and they may need the speedy deployment of Russian soldiers or mercenaries.
China has already eased Sunni-Shia animosities and is positioned to make more progress. The Sunni states cannot defeat Iran and the US isn’t going to do their dirty work. Neither George W Bush nor Donald Trump would go beyond tough talk. Animosities only benefit American defense firms and Israeli regional ambitions. Peace would be more likely if regional security were in the hands of a stable, major power that has shown respect for both sides.
Animosities will ease all the more if both sides accept places in China’s co-prosperity sphere. China can offer technology, infrastructure development, managerial expertise, and capital where needed. Industrialization will benefit from access to China’s immense population with increasing disposable incomes.
Beijing’s overture, self-serving as it is, will resonate with Wahhabi and Shia senses of moral superiority vis-a-vis the West and with longstanding dislike of Israel, aggravated by ongoing events. Closer ties with China would be welcomed as just desserts for Westerners who over the centuries have invaded and exploited the Middle East.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.