Brian M Downing
Israel’s usefulness to Russia isn’t what it once was. Russia’s economy is stronger. China, now an ally, has modernized and developed a hi-tech sector. Both powers want to weaken the US and make their axis the most powerful and respected bloc in the world. The Islamic world, from Libya to the Gulf, would be far more beneficial than Israel – economically, strategically, and symbolically.
Netanyahu’s fixation on his accomplishments and on Iran’s demise, along with his hard hand on the West Bank and Gaza, is blinding him to a potential, jarring geopolitical shift, which he in part is creating.
Russia back on its feet
The post-communist effort to shift from a command economy to a free market was painful. GDP fell sharply, unemployment soared. Russia was a mere producer of commodities, like a third-world country, and oil prices were often low. Its military was in poor shape and Moscow was unable to exert influence in the world, as it once did.
The economy has recovered with a strong measure of state-imposed cartelization of key industries. Oil prices remain volatile but presently are reasonably good from the outlook of exporting countries. The military, at least parts of it, are in good shape, especially its special forces and air force. Events in the Crimea and Libya attest to that.
Russia and the Arab states
Russia was once despised by Gulf states for supporting secular countries like Egypt and Iraq, and for the war in Afghanistan. That’s past history. Russia has made inroads in the lucrative Gulf arms markets once controlled by the West, adding export revenue to its economy.
Surprisingly, Russia’s ties with Iran are not an obstacle. This indicates the Sunni states see considerable strategic usefulness in Russia. This presents the potential for Russian diplomacy to step in. Moscow can argue that war would serve no war, save for advancing Israeli and perhaps US interests. If successful, Russia, in concert with China, can reestablish the old “twin pillars” of the pre-Khomeini region.
Russia and China
Fifty years ago the USSR and China were skirmishing along contested borders. Twenty years later China supported mujahideen groups in Afghanistan. That too is past history. The two states now recognize common ground and seek to weaken the US and establish their new world order. It is one of the most portentous alignments in centuries – one that will shape history for generations.
China will surpass the United States in GDP in a decade or two. The emerging co-prosperity sphere ranges from East Asia to Central Asia, from West Africa to Russia. Its investment clout and the allure of access to its market of 1.3 billion people, with growing incomes, are making countries rethink strategic and trade arrangements. Its economy has moved from agriculture to low-price manufacturing to sophisticated military equipment and hi-tech.
Russia has much to gain from integration into China’s sphere and helping it secure energy sources in thePersian Gulf.
Netanyahu antagonizes allies
Israeli campaigns against Gaza, its rolling takeover of the West Bank, and its ominous intrigues around the Temple Mount are weakening Israel’s alignment with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their publics are angered by Israel’s actions and their rulers’ quiescence. Only the most myopic princes think their rule is safe.
Netanyahu is causing trouble for Russia in Syria. Putin wants to keep his ties with allies in Damascus and Tehran. Netanyahu wants Putin to push Iran out of Syria and convince Syria to shift to the Sunni monarchies. Putin cannot do this without abandoning key allies and badly damaging the credibility he lost when Libya fell apart.
Putin must see the advantages of shifting support to the Arab states – at Israel’s expense. This could take the form of reducing ties with Israel or moving away from it altogether and, in conjunction with China, throwing in with the Sunni powers.
A string of Russian-Chinese bases from Libya to the Levant and into the Persian Gulf, uniting the Islamic world against the US and Israel, would enhance the new powers’ prestige. It will also signal the arrival of their new order and the grave decline of the United States.
© 2021Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.