Brian M Downing
Candidate Trump talked about ending interminable wars in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. President Trump was so determined to get troops out of Syria that he ordered a pullout twice. The troops are still there. President Biden has ordered a complete pullout from Afghanistan by September 11th of this year and the withdrawal is on track.
However, the Taliban are pressing ahead with ground attacks, terrorist bombings, and parleys with local elders. Will Biden keep his word? Will Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan pick up the burden (as thought here)? What’s in store for the war-weary Afghans?
The Taliban
The view here has been that the Taliban will limit its ambitions to the south and not seek to dominate the country to the extent it did twenty years ago. Campaigns to do so will elicit powerful counter efforts from regional powers Russia, China, and Iran. While not discredited, the view is being challenged by the Taliban‘s relentlessness and the regional powers’ inaction.
The Taliban has long had a radical wing that wants all of Afghanistan and beyond, and a more cautious wing of uncertain but lesser goals. The ongoing attacks suggest the radical wing is ascendant but do not clearly establish it.
The withdrawal of foreign forces might cause great trouble for the Taliban. Most fighters are not interested in national conquest or international efforts. They want foreigners out of their districts. Once that is realized desertion rates may skyrocket leaving the leadership with far less power.
Regional powers
Russia and Iran have been giving limited support to the Taliban for several years. Their aim is not to endorse the group but to bleed the US and establish influence with a power that will inevitably govern parts of Afghanistan.
Why are Russia and Iran not reining in the Taliban? The two states, and China as well, want to embarrass and weaken the US. They may do so in one of two ways. First, they can, by continuing support, make the US exit as humiliating as possible, something akin to helicopters lifting off from a besieged embassy. Alternately, they may want to force Biden to retain troops in country. This would weaken the president’s credibility, embolden his domestic opposition, and continue the strain on the military, especially air support and special forces.
Calling their bluff
The Biden administration might well fall into the trap and keep ground and air assets in Afghanistan. The generals are presently voicing concerns over the pullout but their record in recent wars hardly inspires confidence. However, that will accomplish nothing while withdrawal will present significant strategic gains to the US and enduring burdens for Russia, China, and Iran.
The regional powers will face a dilemma: continuing support to the Taliban to maintain influence, which may embolden it; or cutting support to weaken it, which may attract its wrath. In either case Russia, China, and Iran will have a victorious Islamist army along its borders or Near Abroad.
The Taliban could well expand into or cause ferment in Baloch regions of Iran and Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China’s Muslim regions. Foreign jihadis are already heading for Afghanistan, or what they call Khorasan (a term rich in Islamist millenarian thought), where AQ, ISIL, and a slew of likeminded bands already operate.
The longer Russia, China, and Iran delay, the worse the situation they inherit in September.
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Biden must recognize that the US is mired in an unwinnable conflict in a landlocked country, surrounded by rivals and enemies, that’s draining resources and is unrelated to national security. Staying there will lead nowhere. Trying to avert failure is a foolish and endless endeavor.
The president should make it clear to Russia, China, and Iran that the US will be out by September 11th. It’s their war, it’s their problem.
A more Machiavellian approach would be to stress, in official presentations and foreign broadcasts, that over the last twenty years Beijing has bought up Afghan oil, iron, copper, and rare earths and built extractive infrastructure. China is the new foreign overlord. The response may come shortly after the last GIs head home.
Attention is already being paid to China’s mistreatment of its Muslim population. It might also be noted that thousands of Uighur fighters are in Afghanistan and the Levant, learning the skills of war and eager to defend their homeland in western China. Adroitness in Washington and missteps in Moscow and Beijing could redirect international jihadism away from the West and onto Russia and China – perhaps into those countries. Their policies in Afghanistan are setting the stage. The US can help direct a new production.
© 2021Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.