Brian M Downing
The Ukraine war may be accelerating Saudi Arabia’s detachment from the United States and realignment with Russia and China. The process, long followed here, has been underway for years through oil contracts, output quotas, arms sales, and diplomacy. The Russo-Ukraine war is making the process clear and perhaps irreversible.
Biden arrived in Riyadh this week. Putin sent a Chechen emissary last week. The Russian argument for Saudi Arabia to move away from the United State rests on several points.
America in decline
Russian emissaries will note what the Saudi crown prince already suspects: the US and the West are in decline, Russia and China are on the rise. Aspiring leaders must realize that and act in their interests.
The West, especially the US, is wobbling toward decay and instability. Political systems are polarized, fragmented, and increasingly paralyzed. The US lacks the will to rein in spending and is heading for fiscal-political trouble. A new generation is arriving on the scene that didn’t come of age in the aftermath of WW2 or amid the Cold War. Internationalism for them is a martial reflex of older generations that’s wasted trillions of dollars in distant wars, most of which have ended unfavorably.
In coming years the US will be unable or unwilling to maintain its commitments in the Gulf. Better for Riyadh to recognize the new order – one that will support the monarchy, manage its enemies, and keep western values out.
Common interests
Russia and Saudi Arabia both want high oil prices. Furthermore, they want the world to know they have considerable say over output and prices. They can make elected incumbents look weak and strengthen allies with discounts.
Both powers oppose radical Islam. Russia has used pitiless force against it (and other groups) in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Syria, and Libya. Though they were initially on different sides in Syria, Riyadh came to realize that Assad’s downfall would greatly benefit ISIL and the like.
They are both firmly committed to autocracy and adamantly opposed to democracy, at least at home. Democracies elsewhere, though occasionally meddlesome, allow autocracies to express their positions and work with politicians and lobbies.
The House of Saud presents a face of control at home but knows jarring insurrection is a possibility someday. Its own security forces may not be up to the task. Indeed, some units may take part in it. The West won’t come to Riyadh’s aid; Moscow surely will.
Hence the visit of Putin’s Chechen warlord. Khadyrov is paid handsomely to repress his own people and serve Russian interests bluntly in Syria and now Ukraine. A nominal Muslim, Khadyrov’s role in crushing a rebellion in the home of Mecca poses less trouble for the royal family.
The Ukraine war
Russia will argue the certainty of victory in Ukraine. The crown prince, though hardly experienced in world affairs, will think it more a likelihood. A Russian victory would cast a shadow over Europe. NATO would be weakened, democracy would have a serious failure to deal with, and American leadership would be more dubious than ever.
Russian influence is already considerable in Syria, Libya, the CAR, and Sudan. Chinese influence in the Gulf, Africa, and Asia is on the rise. Why not, Russia will argue, detach the kingdom from the US and align with rising powers and inevitable winners? Together the new axis can use oil prices, investments, access to markets, and arms purchases to marginalize the West and usher in a new order.
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The view here has long been that owing to oil dynamics and political affinities, the kingdom will shift to Russia and China. As unsettling as this seems, the Gulf region in 25 years, as oil’s significance declines, will be of far less economic importance. Population pressures, intermittent upheavals, and the enduring appeal of Islamist militancy will make the region unstable, unreliable, and unattractive as a strategic partner. Its armies have shown no strategic value since Lawrence took Damascus.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.