Brian M Downing
China has forged important ties with Russia over the last twenty years. The two countries’ military, financial, business, and foreign policy bureaus collaborate and benefit mutually. The guiding star is to weaken and subordinate the West, especially the United States.
Xi sees Putin’s war on Ukraine as the act of a rash, unworthy partner – and not an irreplaceable one. It’s setting back China’s march to global preeminence. He may try to convince Russian oligarchs and generals that they would all benefit from new leadership in Moscow. Xi’s arguments will be self-serving but they’re not without economic and geopolitical merit.
Oligarchs
Putin’s plan for restoring national might was based on state ownership of oil and gas, steel, nickel, timber, coal, and other resources. The considerable revenue would be used to rebuild the army and otherwise enhance power prestige. He wrote about it in graduate school and implemented it in office.
Putin’s handpicked oligarchs have been deeply loyal but three things make them questionable now. First, they’ve seen substantial losses in wealth as sanctions hit and expand. Many are fair-weather sailors who are losing their immense yachts and excursions overseas.
Second, seven have died in recent months – mysteriously and often gruesomely. In a few cases, wives and children were killed alongside them. These are neither accidents nor coincidences. Putin’s security apparatus discovered evidence of disloyalty or is delivering a warning.
Third, the oligarchs have worked closely with Chinese industries and state officials. China is a major importer of Russian resources and is avidly investing in Russia and its Near Abroad. As Western sanctions deepen and persist, oligarchs see their enterprises more tied to the East than ever. They will at least listen to Xi.
Putin, Xi’s emissaries will argue, has concentrated too much power in his office. This has led to Stalin-like rule and set the stage for a succession struggle. That’s not good for the oligarchs or Russia or anyone but the West. Every business leader knows changes must come, even or especially at the top.
Generals
Fifty, years ago Russia and China clashed over borders on the Amur and Ussuri rivers. Scores were killed on each side. Thirty years later Russia’s decline and China’s ascent brought rapprochement. They have inked trade deals, shared intelligence, conducted joint military exercises, and set out to build a Sino-Russian order.
Russian generals must look upon China’s rapid ascendance with growing dismay. Its economy is ten times Russia’s, its influence pervades the Near Abroad, and its military is larger and better equipped. Russian oligarchs see lucrative trade with China, the generals see looming conflict.
Nonetheless, Xi has an opening with them. His generals have forged ties with Putin’s and can make compelling arguments:
Putin miscalculated badly. He underestimated American cunning and determination to humiliate Russia. More importantly, he failed to rebuild the Russian military as promised twenty years ago. Instead, he built a Potemkin army commanded by unqualified cronies unable to perform its duties of defending the nation.
Weakening America and NATO is all the more necessary now that they have marched east, unleashed their might through the Ukrainian proxy, and ensnared Russia.
China can work diligently with officers below the politicized top who have Russia’s interests at heart and have seen young soldiers die needlessly because of dilettantism and obsequiousness at the top. With Chinese help, the Russian army can be restored to its WW2 grandeur with better-trained troops, more sophisticated weaponry, and an officer corps based on professional standards not political connections.
Only then can Russia’s honor, pride, and effectiveness be restored. Together, Russia and China can avenge the West’s humiliations and become dominant powers. Steps must be taken now to install new leaders, perhaps a council of oligarchs and reformists generals, who recognize national interests and think more strategically than the former regime.
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That will be Xi’s argument. It will be clandestinely delivered through intermediaries with pertinent contacts. Much of it will have already occurred to the oligarchs and generals. The prospect of a new regime building an effective professional army should alarm the West and most of the world.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.