Brian M Downing
Last spring youthful demonstrators filled the streets to protest Beijing’s effort to consolidate its grip. The population of the former British colony is accustomed to representative government and the rule of law and sees Beijing determined to impose its authoritarian will.
Democratic movements are also taking place in Algeria and Sudan. In all three cases the ruling governments have used similar methods to quash democratic threats. In all three cases the demonstrators have shown remarkable determination and resourcefulness. Unlike Algeria and Sudan, democracy is established in Hong Kong. Beijing finds that dangerous.
Repression and response
The governments of Hong Kong and the PRC hoped the demonstrations would disappear once the extradition issue was taken off the agenda. That did not happen as demonstrators realized they were at a critical juncture in the enclave’s history. Perhaps drawing from the Egyptian army’s crackdown in 2013, the government deployed criminal gangs to savagely attack demonstrators. The gangs relented, the demonstrators did not.
Last week Beijing concentrated army troops near Hong Kong and issued a dramatic video of heavily-armed troops demonstrating anti-riot tactics and delivering stern warnings in Hong Kong’s Cantonese dialect. The message was clear: Tiananmen Square could be repeated.
The opposition remains steadfast. Initially, a youth movement, it has brought in many parts of the population who are proud of their enclave’s economic success, distinct identity, and political rights.
Autonomous democratic region?
The opposition is unlikely to press for independence. Autonomy within the PRC framework is more likely. Ruling elites in Algeria and Sudan have eased repression, at least for now, and are counting on divisions within the opposition to arise and tear it apart. Opposition in those two countries comprise people from numerous tribes and regions who are united only by the immediate problem of regime change. Those elites may not be disappointed.
The people of Hong Kong are far more homogeneous than those of Algeria and the Sudan. They are proud of their economic success and defensive of their political rights. They do not want to be subsumed under a northern authoritarian elite.
That elite looks back on China’s long history and sees a recurring theme. Regions break away from central authority and China is gravely weakened. This occurred in ancient times but also in the thirties and forties – within the living memory of many. Hong Kong, the Uighur region, and Tibet are manageable problems today, perhaps, but nothing should be allowed to encourage them.
Today, China’s urban, educated population is supportive of authoritarian rule as it brings the nation back to greatness. However, they are also increasingly westernized in attire, entertainment, and lifestyles. One day, perhaps amid a protracted recession, they may find fault with one-party rule and demand participation in government. The proximity of a democratic enclave will encourage them.
Beijing’s options
China could follow through with its threat of an army intervention. This would damage China Inc’s brand on world markets, hurting exports at a parlous time. It might also bring widespread concern that China is a dangerous power and that it’s time to begin shifting commerce elsewhere.
Invasion could also bring small-scale but long-lasting resistance. Hong Kong men began mandatory military training recently and may know a thing or two about basic weapons, though the training is only a few weeks and is probably more ideological than tactical. Nonetheless, the opposition knows the terrain and streets and could move about like fish in the South China Sea.
China could slowly exert economic pressure. Raw materials might not flow into Hong Kong factories in a timely manner. Shipping might be delayed for inspections. Banking systems might be interrupted.
Key leaders could be targeted for arrest, kidnapping, or worse. Beijing’s intelligence personnel are undoubtedly gathering information on them and preparing to neutralize them. However, the movement is broadly-based and does not overly depend on a handful of leaders.
In the early eighties the Polish Solidarity movement challenged Soviet authority. Moscow of course opposed this and made it clear that it would invade. It had done so in Czechoslovakia in ’68 and Hungary twelve years before that. Russian troops massed near the Polish borders. General Jaruzelski decided an indigenous crackdown and rule was preferable to that of the Red Army. And he acted.
Beijing might be reminding Hong Kong’s government of Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Solidarity, and the Jaruzelski option – and making it clear that its tank commanders will not stop as at Tiananmen Square in 1989.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.