Brian M Downing
Venezuela is important to the Trump administration, at least occasionally. There is no discernible strategy on what to do and focus comes and goes, as with many things. Focus seems to have lessened significantly since the US called for Maduro’s ouster, set up food distribution points on the Columbia border, and warned Russia about its presence there. Weeks later, a key opposition leader announced he had substantial military backing, marched on the capital, and got nothing.
Venezuela will not stay on the back-burner for long. Indeed, there’s probably a clandestine effort underway. The administration’s foreign policy has thus far achieved little anywhere. The Iran policy is alienating allies and emboldening Tehran and its backers. North Korea has restarted missile tests, albeit of smaller-range ones, and is as likely to give up its nuclear weapons as the US and Russia are.
Most importantly, Venezuela is becoming a key theater in Cold War Two. It’s unlikely to be a military one but the competition for influence there will be intense.
Oil and regional influence
Venezuela has the largest proven reserves in the world. Nonetheless, it produces less crude than North Dakota. This is not due to quota restrictions but to exceptionally poor management. The Chavez and Maduro governments, despite warnings from industry experts, failed to invest in infrastructure and instead lavished money on themselves, populist programs, and foreign countries in the region. The third expenditure is critical to foreign interests.
Russia and China want Venezuelan production back up. More relevant to US interests, those powers want the revenue to be used to garner regional support – for Venezuela, Russia, and China. Saudi Arabia has used its petro-bucks to buy influence in foreign countries. Money goes to schools, mosques, politicians, and generals. Today, Riyadh has built substantial support in Egypt, Sudan, and Pakistan. Algeria and Libya are works in progress. Similarly, Russia has used oil to win support along its vast periphery.
If Venezuelan production can return to former levels or exceed them, it will expand its influence in Latin America. Anti-US sentiment has long been high and Washington’s recent words and actions have done nothing to quell it. The region may be receptive to alignment with Caracas, Beijing, and Moscow and becoming part of a regional defense pact and a global co-prosperity sphere. Chinese investments may replace American ones. Chinese and Russian arms may supplant Western ones.
The Maduro regime
The US wants Maduro out to prevent this. It’s working with politicians and officers to coalesce popular discontent and bring about regime change. Russia and Cuba are working to keep him in power, at least for now. He’s expendable though.
In Marxian terms, a school of thought with marginal significance in those countries, he’s a fetter on production. He and his colleagues are too corrupt and incompetent to bring oil production back up, despite the presence of Russian oil engineers for many years now. In geopolitical terms, a school of thought with enormous significance to Russia and China, he’s an obstacle to their goals of expanding their power and reducing the US’s – in Peru, Ecuador, perhaps one day Mexico just to America’s south.
Russia and Cuba have substantial intelligence personnel in the country. They surveil and intimidate rival politicians and restive officers. They may soon be used to press Maduro to purge his cronies from the oil fields and replace them with more skilled Russian and Chinese ones.
Alternately, the intelligence operatives may oust Maduro, replacing him with a less egotistical and more pliant figure. This would be welcomed by the long-suffering population and could, with a restored oil sector, lead to a truly popular government aligned with Russia and China.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.