Brian M Downing
Conflicts are raging from the Maghreb to the Caucasus to Central Asia. Concerns are mounting that another will soon erupt in East Asia. China is exerting pressure on Taiwan – a breakaway province that Beijing is determined to take back. China’s warships patrol the Taiwan Straits, its jets routinely violate Taiwan’s airspace, and its army practices beach landings, logistics, and ground operations.
The signs are clear. But giving the order to attack is another matter. So is winning the war and facing the aftermath. Beijing is undoubtedly calculating the international situation, the risks, benefits, and consequences. Naturally, calculations will be made by minds buoyed by the headiness of rising power, not by a distant analyst cautioned by studying wars over the years.
The Chinese military and state, heady though they are, cannot see the conquest of Taiwan as an easy task, necessary and popular as it appears.
The Chinese century and Taiwan
Everyone in China knows of their country’s unpleasant past. Government was in the hands of doddering dynasts who lived in splendid isolation and prided themselves on past glories, and expected their subjects to do the same. The result was over a century of political weakness and foreign exploitation. Land was ceded to the British and Portuguese. Cunning emissaries in modern warships forced unfair trade deals on them.
State-led capitalism has brought a great leap ahead in wealth, power, and ambition. The Chinese economy will surpass the US’s in a decade or so. The People’s Liberation Army (the army, navy, and air force) is no longer a large but indifferently equipped force of dubious effectiveness. Chinese defense spending is second only to the US’s. The PLA has modern jets, radar, missiles, and about 350 warships including two aircraft carriers with two more in the works. Generals and admirals are eager to show their patriotism and resolve.
British ships of the line, Prussian grenadiers and hussars, and the American Great White Fleet were dazzling symbols of national might, prestige, and unity. The same holds for the PLA. The Chinese people are eager to see it put to use and right the many wrongs that the nation had to endure. Taiwan’s independence is one such wrong. (Vast territories to the north stolen by Romanovs is a second, but that’s another matter for now).
The hour
Events are presenting an auspicious occasion for retaking Taiwan, at last that’s how the Chinese people see it in social media. The US is weak. The political system is deeply polarized and unable to act coherently. Cities are beset by racial and political uprisings and authorities cannot or are unwilling to impose order, as Chinese counterparts have done. The coming election may well worsen the turmoil and paralyze the state.
PLA cruise missiles can keep American carrier groups east of Taiwan, the air force can establish supremacy over the Straits, and the navy can support infantry and armor landings for the drive on Taipei. Cyberwarfare bureaus will wreak havoc on Taiwanese, American, and allied communications. Russia could create a distraction in the Mediterranean, Iran could do the same in the Persian Gulf. They could act concertedly on US positions in eastern Syria.
The hour is at hand, or seems to be. Their military can restore national unity and take a major step toward ending the American century and beginning a Chinese one. Spain lost its dominance in the stormy English Channel, Japan off the coast of Midway. America will do the same at Taiwan.
However, Chinese military journals have taken note of their public’s ardor for a Taiwan campaign earlier this year and stated the time wasn’t right. The US election may change minds, but the leaders, political and military, may be sobered by assessments of forces arrayed against them and the unpredictability of war. They may even know Robert Burns’s quote about plans not working out.
Part two: the risks of war and the consequences of victory.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.