Brian M Downing
Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel are collaborating to gravely weaken or even fragment Iran. The view here is the alliance cannot last long, especially if it succeeds against Iran. A triumphant Mohammad bin Salman would likely turn on Israel. His Wahhabi creed is deeply hostile to Israel and the West – the US in particular. Populations in his kingdom and aligned powers look back on the last 75 years and share the same enmities. Victory would bring headiness and ambition.
Why then are the US and Israel helping Saudi Arabia weaken Iran when success would strengthen and embolden its ambitious and ruthless leader and bring further instability to the region? The partnership may bring victory to the kingdom but it will certainly bring deep problems and perhaps ruin.
Finances
Saudi Arabia purchases immense quantities of sophisticated military equipment – a process urged by the Nixon administration to counter pressure on the dollar after oil prices shot up in the 70s. As tensions with Iran worsened following the Khomeini Revolution (1979) and the rise of Shia Iraq (2003), Saudi purchases have grown. Surveillance equipment is high on the shopping list now as worries of terrorism and popular uprisings remain high.
Mohammad bin Salman is embarking on a far-reaching industrialization effort to transform his economy from over-reliance on oil production to a diversified modern marvel. He intends to repeat in the Middle East what the Chinese did in the Far East – industrial parks, shipbuilding, technology hubs, and arms production – with sales to neighboring countries and the world. This of course will require purchasing foreign machinery and technology, hiring foreign engineers and managers, and taking on immense debt.
The kingdom is already spending lavishly. It’s long been subsidizing mosques, governments, and armies from the Maghreb to Pakistan. The intention is to build a powerful bloc of supportive populations and beholden armies – “vassal states” as they were once called in the West.
This is all extremely expensive and a payoff isn’t assured. Though sitting atop the highly profitable Aramco, the House of Saud may one day find itself in financial straits and without the modern economy the prince’s industrialization program envisions. The kingdom’s two allies of today may be deliberately leading it into disaster. Further, they will be positioned to use their economic clout to worsen the kingdom’s financial straits, bring it to heel, or push it toward fiscal collapse.
All this may come after many years of transferring billions of petrodollars out of the kingdom and into western industries and banks. If Arabic doesn’t have a word for “fleecing”, it may have to find one.
Internal opposition
Cooperation with the US and Israel alone presents serious problems for the House of Saud. Their kingdom’s religious and political doctrines have vilified both Israel and the US since the former’s origin in 1948 and the latter’s immediate recognition and staunch support of it. Saudi subjects, whether religious or not, readily see hypocrisy in common cause with the Great and Little Satans, especially against a fellow Islamic country.
Arab publics are mindful of American and Israeli wars and intrigues. Israel has defeated Arab armies in four wars, the US has done the same in two. Three of the defeats were swift and humiliating. The notion is already circulating that the whole Saudi-Iranian conflict has been plotted up in the US and Israel and that it will bring them great benefit and leave the region far weaker. The former is wrong but the latter might spot on.
Events out of Riyadh’s hands can trigger and intensify unrest: harsher crackdowns on Palestinians; annexation of the West Bank, release of sensitive material detailing the royal family’s dealings with the US and Israel. The most worrisome event would involve the Temple Mount. It’s currently under Jordanian control but the Israeli Right is eager to take it over. The effect of that on Arab publics is incalculable.
A nuclear program
The US is helping Saudi Arabia with a nuclear program. This is puzzling as the kingdom has terrorist cells and only moderately effective security forces, which makes the dire scenario of a dirty bomb more plausible. The program may be intended to goad Iran into restarting its enrichment program – a violation of the JCPOA that would lead to swift military action from the US and/or Israel.
The nuclear program may one day serve as an excuse for hostile action against the kingdom. The US has achieved much by claiming Iraq and Iran have advanced nuclear programs and similar claims of Saudi nuclear misdeeds will find receptive audiences, regardless of the grounding in hard intelligence.
Mohammad bin Salman is young and ambitious but probably sufficiently wary to recognize the potential trap suggested here. Family lore has told him of British efforts to place the Hashemite clan in control of the Arab peninsula and of his grandfather’s victory over them.
MBS will aggressively push ahead with his industrialization program to provide the wealth and support he’ll need. He will strive to turn his army and those of GCC allies into effective fighting forces and to solidify ties with the armies of Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan. This may prevent financial straits and popular unrest – and make the US and Israel recognize a new, self-sufficient ruler in the Middle East, despite concerted efforts to bring him down.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.