Brian M Downing
American troops in Syria and Iraq have come under fire since the Hamas war began. Over the weekend an Iranian drone struck an outpost in Jordan near its borders with Syria and Iraq. The Houthis continue to attack Western shipping in the Red Sea. It’s all part of an Iranian response to years of US and Israeli efforts to weaken the Islamic Republic.
The Iranian campaign is almost certainly backed by China and Russia. They want to overstretch US resources, exacerbate political divisions, and focus Arab and world anger on the US and Israel. It must be admitted that the plan demonstrates formidable strategic thinking. Washington must be equal to the challenge.
Syria and Iraq
The view here has long been that US policy in Syria was poorly thought out, open ended, and bound to bring problems. (See “How we got into Syria (and where we’re going),” Downing Reports, May 2018.) Early in the Syrian conflict the US sat on the sidelines but after stalemate set in it felt the need to train militias in the hope they would tilt the conflict in favor of the rebels. One unit dissolved shortly after crossing into Syria. Another showed little interest in fighting. Assad’s still in power.
ISIL’s 2014 rise led to assistance teams in Syria and Iraq – trainers and also artillery crews. They were successful in expelling ISIL from cities but it remains in smaller towns and villages. Instead of leaving operations to local troops, the US stayed and became an almost permanent presence in Iraq and eastern Syria. The position in Syria is practically a separate state – a landlocked one in an inhospitable area. Iran et al watched.
The US response
The casualties in Jordan, three dead and dozens of wounded, indicate a strong response is coming. Shia militia fired the drone but Iran gave it to them and trained them to use it. US attacks on militias are a certainty and some inside Iran itself are possible. Plants that produce drones and missiles used on US positions (and Ukrainian ones) may be hit with standoff weapons. IRGC ships in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea may be hit.
Support for Kurdish, Arab, and Baloch separatists inside Iran might be considered. Little would come of it though. Appreciable weapons would be difficult to get in and IRGC reprisals would be fierce. Separatists know US support would be neither sizable nor longstanding. Protests in cities have been going on for years now and are highly unlikely to swell into a threat.
Attacks on Shia militias in Syria and Iraq will intensify and could wear them down. However, they are steeled by Shia unity and prospects of striking blows against the US and Israel.
The US won’t get support from Iraqi forces, not even the ones it trained and led to retake land from ISIL. Indeed, US reprisals on Shia militias in Iraq will strengthen Iraqi support for ordering the US to leave.
The axis responses
Iran, China, and Russia will denounce US actions as another effort to control the Middle East – an argument that will resonate within many publics. The axis will offer more than words.
Attacks will continue from proxies and IRGC bases inside the Islamic Republic in the hope of protracting the war, creating divisions in the West and inside Washington, and building Iraqi support for expelling the US.
Russia and China could deliver anti-ship missiles to Iran and its proxies, deploy air defenses to Iran and Yemen, and send ships “to secure sea lanes for world commerce.” Russia could attack US positions in eastern Syria. Support wouldn’t be limited to Damascus.
Escalation potentials aren’t promising for the US. All actors know it. Throughout the fighting, China will call for restraint and more importantly for dialog on the US presence in Syria and Iraq and on the two-state solution.
Next: leaving Iraq and Syria.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.