News and commentary 21 Oct 2015

Summit re Syria slated for Friday

Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey will meet to discuss the war in Syria. The view here has been that the Russian intervention in recent weeks was designed to impress upon the rebels that they could not win and that a negotiated settlement must be pursued. Putin will try to improve his image as a belligerent by taking a diplomatic tack. A negotiated settlement will be hard to reach because there are too many rebel groups and agreement on how to fight ISIL (who will fight ISIL) will be difficult.

Afghan/Uzbek warlord assumes role in countering Taliban in the north

Abdul Dostum, a warlord and vice president, has been tasked with taking on the Taliban presence in Faryab province. This is a sign that the Afghan army needs the help of warlord militias. Not a good sign at all.

General in charge of US training program to step down

MG Michael Nagata, who directed the failed effort to build a US-backed rebel force, is leaving his position. The program has been an embarrassment, but Nagata is being kicked upstairs to a counterterrorism position. That program needs to be investigated. What were local trainers telling higher-ups?

Russia builds military installation in Arctic 

Demonstrating its position in the potentially lucrative Arctic region, Russia has constructed a a small military base on Alexandra Land. about 1500 miles northeast of the tip of Scandinavia. Germany built a case there during WW2 but had to abandon it,