Russia’s deployment of fighter aircraft and troops to Syria has overshadowed similar moves by Iran. The Islamic Republic, a longstanding Syrian ally, has sent about four thousand Shia fighters recruited from Afghanistan’s Hazara people and Iraq’s Arab majority, and reportedly a small contingent of its own ground troops as well.
The US response
The move comes close on the heels of Washington’s acceptance of the P5+1 nuclear deal. Had it come earlier, opponents in congress might have been able to muster enough votes to scuttle the deal. Disappointment must be keen, as may be the will to pay Iran back.
Iran has clearly moved closer to Russia. Their forces serve cheek by jowl in Syria, and Iran will likely support a Russian presence to the east in Iraq – something more substantive than the intelligence center Russia recently set up in Baghdad. Russia is hardly disposed to criticize Iran’s human rights record or encourage political reform. It will also secure a number of arms contracts from a country whose oil revenues are on the rise and whose military rests atop the political system alongside the ayatollahs.
Washington’s concern, and that of other states as well, will naturally fall upon Iran’s nuclear program. Speculation must be occurring that Russia, seeking a powerful partner in the region, will offer a shield behind which centrifuges will spin and warhead design will proceed. This is unlikely as Russia has no interest in seeing another nuclear power, and foreign relations being what they are, Iran may in coming years be an enemy again – one seeking to spread its influence into the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Washington might see a potential asset in the Afghan Shias that Iran is putting into the frontlines of the Syrian war. They may become effective fighters and one day return home to fight the Taliban.
The Saudi response
Riyadh is upset over Russian actions in Syria and has countered by using its most effective weapon, oil. The Saudis are offering discounted crude to Poland to replace Russian exports.
The Saudis and their Sunni allies will also respond in Syria, if they haven’t already. Arms have flown into rebel hands in recent days, setting the stage for a major battle around Aleppo where Syria and its allies are on the offensive. Riyadh et al may seek to make the battle a costly one for the Shia. This may be especially so regarding Iran which they would like to see bled white. The Saudis, then, may reject any calls for negotiations in coming months and wage a war of attrition on the Shias – without sending any of its own troops into the fray.
Support for insurgencies and terrorist groups inside Iran may increase in Kurdish, Arab, and Baloch regions. Of course, it will be the Syrian people of all faiths who will continue to suffer the most.
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Iran’s actions in both Iraq and Syria are being trumpeted in its media, as to be expected. Fars News Agency and Press TV are filled with breathless reports of Iran’s bold actions delivering serious blows on ISIL and other enemies. Domestic support is likely quite high, though perhaps not as high in the urban middle classes who see, quite correctly, that military feats abroad are hardly conducive to political reform at home. Military candidates may do well in the next elections which are about a year and a half away.
Indeed, many states in the region will be tempted to pursue military ventures as a means of garnering domestic support and stifling democracy.
©2015 Brian M Downing