Brian M Downing
The US has officially recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, the narrow strip of elevated land overlooking western Syria. Israel took control of it in the Six-Day War of 1967 and battled for it again six years later in the Yom Kippur War.
The US has sanctioned a fait accompli. Israel will never relinquish Golan. It offers commanding heights over Syrian territory and makes any mobilization easily recognized and vulnerable to artillery fire. With favorable winds, parts of Damascus with its government and military assets are within range of the bigger guns. Further, Golan is home to or adjacent to water resources vital to Israel’s agriculture and growing population.
The move has been widely criticized in the EU, Middle East, and in parts of the American public that follow Israel politics.
Israeli politics
PM Netanyahu requested recognition a year ago but was rebuffed for coming too soon after the US embassy move to Jerusalem. The Golan matter this week, then, cones at a most opportune time fir PM Netanyahu. He’s engaged in a close election campaign against retired army chief of staff Benny Gantz. The Israeli army and intelligence services retain the secular, centrist orientations of the country’s founding and oppose Netanyahu’s ultra-nationalist/religious vision for the country.
The charge of meddling is sounding in both the US and Israel. David Aaron Miller has been especially critical on media appearances, calling the move a “blatant, willful, even brazen, transparent effort to do something important and positive for Mr. Netanyahu 20-plus days away from a very critical election.” (The News Hour, 21 March)
Supporters of Israel in the US, most of whom are quite liberal, are increasingly wary of Netanyahu and his supporters. In part because of his heavy-handedness at home, in part because of his working relationship with a detested American president. The two leaders are part of a disconcerting global trend toward populist governments with varying degrees of respect for democracy and the rule of law.
Regional politics
The move weakens the partnership between Israel and the Sunni states, especially Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu has forged this odd arrangement by playing on Arab fears of Iran and Shiism. Iran is said to be expansionist, supportive of terrorism, and working hard on nuclear weapons. The charges are difficult to credit here but find receptive ears in Sunni capitals.
But those same capitals are upset by Trump’s announcement. Pushing into prominence a matter of Israeli control of seized Arab territory threatens to stimulate discontent. It comes at a time when the prospect of a respectable agreement on the Palestinians is bleaker than ever, reprisals on Gaza have barely ended, and the US embassy move is not too far in the rear-view mirror. Most importantly, the region is undergoing a new round of popular protests in Algeria and Sudan. They could spread as did the ones in Tunisia eight years ago.
The US announcement also comes as Sunni powers try to convince the Assad government in Syria to move away from Iran and closer to them. Syria has reacted angrily to the move and vowed to retake Golan, but it’s hardly positioned to act on it. Assad may ask the Sunnis to intervene in Washington and Jerusalem, perhaps by dangling the idea of moving away from Tehran, but the matter isn’t negotiable to Netanyahu and Trump.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.